The 2024 NFL Draft is now less than three weeks away, with many draft analysts wondering what the Chicago Bears will do with the ninth overall selection now that it appears they will use the first overall selection on quarterback Caleb Williams. Although several prognosticators believe that Chicago will utilize the ninth pick on either a wide receiver, offensive tackle, or defensive end, a potential trade down from the spot with another NFL franchise is a possibility. A trade back by the Bears, If they select Williams first overall, could be more valuable for the long-term future of their rookie quarterback than any position player they take at nine.
Long-Term Draft Compensation Could Give WIlliams And The Bears Invaluable Flexibility For Their Future
Heading into this year's draft, the Bears have only four selections after trading multiple picks for veteran talents such as defensive end Montez Sweat, offensive lineman Ryan Bates, and wide receiver Keenan Allen. With the limited number of picks, Chicago must be very cautious about utilizing the draft resources as they still have positional needs, especially at wide receiver and defensive end. General manager Ryan Poles has a vital decision of whether to add a significant piece to one of the league's best defenses or provide Williams with a pass-catching prospect that he can develop with for the extended future.
Due to the high volume of NFL teams in need of and having an intense desire to draft a quarterback prospect in this year's draft, it may be in Poles' best interest to trade back, to recoup more picks for this year, but potentially also for the 2025 NFL Draft. Although a trade back could cost Chicago a chance to select either the top defensive end available or one of the three wide receivers expected to go in the first ten selections, adding multiple picks and a player of lesser value at one of those positions could be the best choice for the Bears. Poles' team could be in a prominent position to get premium value in a potential trade back if one of the quarterback prospects falls out of the top ten spots.
Taking a lesser talented prospect and selections becomes even more enticing if a franchise gives up a potential first-round pick in next year's draft. Having two first-round selections next year could be significant as the Bears' front office will have a better understanding of what the offense needs to further build around Williams. Additionally, like the trade with Carolina that eventually led to Chicago having the first overall selection in 2024, having another team's selection could potentially result in another top-five pick in 2025.
If Chicago drafts Williams, he develops in his rookie season, and the team has a top-five selection due to trading back from this draft's ninth spot, Poles and his front office could have several draft picks for years, moving forward. The flexibility with an immense number of selections would enable the Bears to continuously build via the draft and allow them to still have a talented roster, even if they need to sign Williams to an expensive extension.
The ability to have multiple high-round selections would enable the Bears to have the necessary ammunition if they want to trade up to add a player who is highly regarded as Williams but plays at a different position. Imagine if Chicago is one player away at the linebacker or running back position, are a few draft slots too far to get the best player at that position, but then can trade up due to having multiple first-round selections. Having that flexibility goes a long way when the franchise is on the verge of drafting a player like Williams.
Justin Fields Provides An Example Of How This Situation Is A Strong Possibility
Williams will replace former starting quarterback Justin Fields, who was traded last month to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a mid-round selection in next year's draft. When the Bears drafted Fields in 2021, they needed a signal-caller and traded up from 20 to 11 with the New York Giants. The trade with New York cost Chicago their first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
One of the reasons why Poles felt comfortable trading the first overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft to Carolina was because he wanted to gamble to see if Fields could develop as a passer, enabling Chicago to trade one of their first-round selections this year if it became first overall again. Had the Bears' quarterback taken the next step as a passer, the team would likely have traded the current first-overall pick to another team for a historic compensation.
Potentially trading the ninth selection to move back a few spots while recuperating several picks in this year's draft or a first in next year's allows the Bears to recreate the chance of cashing in if that selection turns into a coveted pick. Similar to what happened with Fields after 2023, Chicago would set themselves up with insurance in case Williams doesn't live up to his projected potential. Having insurance gives Poles immense peace of mind when attacking future drafts and free agency periods.
Although the Bears appear ready to select Williams at one, the ninth spot can provide as much value for the next several years, depending on how the draft plays out. If Chicago is in a position where a team is desperate to trade up for a quarterback prospect who has fallen to nine, they must take a potential offer if a solid one is made, even if it costs the chance to select a player like Rome Odunze or Dallas Turner. Long-term draft capital is as valuable as any player there at nine once you have a foundational quarterback in place to build around.
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