A Weird Roster Decision May Hand Chicago Bears The #1 Pick

The Chicago Bears are one loss away from the #2 overall pick. It looks like the Minnesota Vikings will play their starters the entire game on Sunday. They don't have much choice, with the #2 seed in the NFC still up for grabs. Chicago is horribly banged up on defense. The offense can't seem to score outside of their opening drives. Unless the Vikings thoroughly wet the bed, they should win this game. However, there is bigger game to hunt. A loss would also put the Bears in a position to steal the #1 overall pick.

For that to happen, they need the Houston Texans to win their season finale against the Indianapolis Colts. That may seem hard to imagine at first glance. The Colts have a better record and will be at home. However, things aren't what they seem. Indianapolis has lost six straight games, including three of the last four by double digits. They also have a monumental problem at quarterback. Nick Foles was injured last week against New York. He will not play.

This is where it gets intriguing for the Bears. Rather than go with longtime veteran Matt Ryan, head coach Jeff Saturday elected to promote second-year man Sam Ehlinger instead. It's a puzzling decision considering how rough the QB looked in his other two starts, throwing for a combined 304 yards, one interception, and a lost fumble.

The Chicago Bears couldn't ask for better odds.

All they need is for two things to happen. They must lose to Minnesota, and the Texans must beat a reeling opponent with a backup quarterback. It isn't guaranteed, but the chances are way better than one could imagine. It comes down to how hard Houston plays in the finale. Before last week, they'd been playing some solid games. They narrowly lost to Dallas 27-23, took Kansas City to overtime the next week, and then beat the Tennessee Titans 19-14. If that team shows up on Sunday, they can and should win.

It isn't easy to understand the Colts' thought process. While Ryan hasn't been anything close to his former Pro Bowl self this year, he's still your best chance to win this game. Ehlinger doesn't offer much outside of his mobility. It makes you wonder if ownership instructed Saturday to do this, ensuring the best possible chance to lose. Why? A loss guarantees the Colts the 5th overall pick, giving them a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the 2023 draft. At the same time, it might rob their division rival of the 1st overall pick.

That is plenty of incentive for such a decision. All the Chicago Bears can do is their part while expressing gratitude.