The Chicago Bears are in a weird position. They are simultaneously one of the easiest and most difficult teams to predict going into the 1st round of the 2024 draft. Everybody knows what they're going to do at #1 overall. That was made obvious by trading Justin Fields to Pittsburgh. However, all that certainty goes out the window once the focus shifts to their plans for the #9 pick. The sheer number of directions they could go is dizzying. They could trade up for someone like Marvin Harrison Jr. They could stay put and take a new left tackle or trade back to accumulate picks.
After examining all the details made available by various insiders over the past few weeks, I've whittled things down to the scenario I believe will unfold. It comes in three simple stages.
- Draft Caleb Williams
- Trade down from #9
- Select an interior pass rusher
There are multiple reasons these conclusions were reached. They are discussed below. Nothing is ever set in stone with the draft. However, based on what we know of this class and the two men in charge of this team? The arrows point in a specific direction.
Every sign points in this direction for the Chicago Bears
Why Caleb Williams?
Mostly because it's all but a lock at this point. Every single sign over the past several weeks indicates the Bears are zeroed in on the USC star. It isn't hard to understand why. His arm ability, improvisational instincts, and playmaking credentials are hard to match. He's drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. While there is never any telling how far a player goes in the NFL, the foundation is there. If cultivated properly, Williams has all the makings of a genuine franchise quarterback.
Why trade down?
Yes, the Bears could stay put and take a wide receiver. However, it's important to remember who is in charge. Ryan Poles wants to build through the draft. He only has four picks at present. No matter what he says publicly, nothing about his character suggests he will settle for that. Each of his first two drafts featured at least ten picks. His best chance to get anything solid in return will be moving down from #9. Perhaps a 2nd round pick or a 3rd and a mid-rounder. That will give him much-needed flexibility to improve the team's depth and continue stacking the roster with young, cheap talent.
Why select a defensive tackle?
The Chicago Bears need another pass rusher. That much is obvious. Matt Eberflus has been hunting for an interior rusher since he first arrived in 2022. Every attempt to this point met with disappointment. Larry Ogunjobi failed his physical. Justin Jones was okay, but never anything special. Gervon Dexter has the makings of a good player but lacks the explosiveness generally associated with the three-technique role. This draft class is abundant with such options. Byron Murphy of Texas, Jer'Zhan Newton of Illinois, and Braden Fiske of Florida State are all considered the best of the group. Yet each is seen as too much of a risk for taking in the top 10. However, that changes once the Bears move down.
