Analytics Expert Shows Why Chicago Bears Plan To Trade Down From #9

The Chicago Bears will take a quarterback at #1 overall in two weeks—everybody knows that much. After that, they become one of the most unpredictable teams in the first round because they also hold the #9 pick. Most mock drafts from experts have them staying put, either taking a top wide receiver to give their young quarterback or a pass rusher to fortify their defensive line. However, people closer to the team seem to think the odds are growing that GM Ryan Poles works the phone to move down that spot, hoping to secure some extra draft capital.

As always, this created a debate. One section of fans and experts think that would be too reckless. There will be some excellent blue-chip talents available at #9. There is no sense in passing on them to get one or two extra picks by moving down. On the other hand, it's hard to produce a productive class with only four picks. Moving down for more would help create more flexibility and give Poles more bites at the apple. Analytic expert Johnathan Wood of Da Bears Blog crunched the numbers and came away with a clear conclusion.

If Poles has his way, the Bears will move down.

"Through 2 drafts, Poles has pulled off 8 trades that involved pick swaps. In 7 of those, he moved down to create extra picks, which seems to be his preference. Given that the Bears currently only have 4 draft picks for this year, I anticipate we will see him trade down at least once to pick up extra selections, and I won’t be shocked to see multiple trade downs...

...If Ryan Poles trades back from pick 9, he will be in range to invest a first round pick on a pass rusher (DEs like Jared Verse or Chop Robinson or DTs like Byron Murphy or Johnny Newton feel like possible targets), and then have extra picks he can spend to further bolster the pass rush later in the draft.

There is no saying for sure how the draft will unfold – I am sure the Bears’ ultimate action at 9 depends on what happens between picks 2 and 8 – but my read of Poles’ draft history, plus Chicago’s moves so far this offseason – makes me think that is his plan A."

The Chicago Bears likely still land a good player further down the board.

Projections to this point have the top 10-12 picks being a massive frenzy on the offensive side of the ball. Four quarterbacks and three receivers could be gone in the first eight spots. After that, a run is expected on offensive tackles. This means the majority of top pass rushers in this class may not start coming off the board until the middle of the 1st round. In his latest mock draft, Mel Kiper of ESPN has the first defensive tackle and second edge rusher coming off the board at #18 and #19. If Poles senses the same thing, moving down is the obvious thing to do.

While defensive line might not be as flashy as many Chicago Bears fans hoped, its importance to their success can't be overstated. Montez Sweat is their only star-caliber pass rusher. Gervon Dexter and DeMarcus Walker are solid players but more rotational options at this point. They need a second "multiplier," as Poles puts it, to take this front to the next level. Given how questionable the depth of this class is, taking one in the 1st round might be their only chance to land a difference-maker. They could then use the extra capital they receive to help the offense later on.