Analytics Expert Reveals Chicago Bears Playoff Chances

The Chicago Bears playoff conversations looked like they died well over a month ago. After starting 5-1, they went into a tailspin that saw them drop to 5-5 by the bye week. Nobody in their right mind thought the team was capable of collecting itself. Especially after they lost another two games out of the break. Then things just started happening. The Bears rallied to crush the Texans 36-7 at Soldier Field. An emphatic victory nobody thought they had in them. That game seemed to give them newfound confidence which they used to go into Minnesota and stun the Vikings 33-27. Fitting revenge for the humiliation their divisional rival put on them a few weeks back.

Just like that, the Bears were back in the playoff picture.

Their path ahead seems pretty straightforward. They must win their final two games over Jacksonville and Green Bay. Then they need the Arizona Cardinals, who currently hold the final 7th slot in the playoffs, to lose one of their final two games against the 49ers or Rams. A lot of things need to go right, but it's hardly the least likely scenario in the world. Arizona already lost to L.A. earlier this year and needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat San Francisco. Neither of those games can be called gimmes. For Chicago, they should beat Jacksonville who sits at 1-13 on the season. The big question mark is the Packers. Everybody remembers the thumping they put on the Bears last month. Some are wondering if they end up securing the #1 seed whether or not they'll play their starters in the finale. If not, that gives Chicago a prime opportunity to punch their ticket. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIglugIK-d0&ab_channel=NFL

Chicago Bears playoff hopes basically one-in-three

Cynthia Frelund is one of the top analytics experts for NFL Network. She's run through a ton of simulations in the past week to get a gauge on which teams are most likely to make it into January. Among them all, the Bears were one of the most intriguing. Here is what she discovered about their chances at cracking the tournament this year.

"The Chicago Bears make the playoffs in 33.3 percent of simulations. This probability mainly comes down to one path: The Bears winning out and the Cardinals losing at least once more. Chicago visits the one-win Jaguars this Sunday. A week later, the Bears host the Packers -- though Green Bay could be in a position to rest starters. Meanwhile, Arizona hosts the 49ers this week before hitting the road to face the Rams in Week 17."

Honestly, those aren't the worst odds they've ever faced. The one thing the Chicago Bears playoff push can at least be grateful for is they don't need a ton of help to get in. It's basically win two games and hope the Cardinals lose one. That's it. Oftentimes in the past, they've needed more than one team to either win or lose a game in order to get in. Something that almost never goes their way.

If nothing else, fans should be grateful for one thing.

At least the Bears are playing meaningful football this late into December. By this time last year, they'd already been all but eliminated from the playoff picture and had to slog through two ugly games against the Chiefs and Vikings to finish up. This time there is a real chance for them to make some noise down the stretch and they might just be hitting their stride at the perfect time. Isn't this so much better than having endless conversations about the draft and which coaches or front office guys might be fired?