Analytics Hint A Robert Quinn Rebound Year Is Incoming

While many things about the 2020 season didn't go as planned for the Chicago Bears, one of the most shocking was the season Robert Quinn had. When they signed the 30-year old pass rusher to a five-year deal worth $70 million, they thought they were getting that elusive second hunter alongside Khalil Mack. Especially after racking up 11.5 sacks the year before. So to see him finish with just two all season? That was not received well. Many are already proclaiming Quinn to be one of the worst free agent signings in Bears history. A typical reaction given the circumstances. Is it a bit premature though? Quinn reportedly had health problems dog him before the season began, dealing with a case of drop-foot. That inability to properly utilize his full explosiveness didn't help.

There was a reason for optimism though.

After just three QB hits and a sack through his first 12 games, Quinn finished strong with four QB hits and a sack in his final four appearances. Perhaps a sign that his foot had come around and he was regaining his old form. Nick Shook of NFL.com buys into this. Using Next Gen Stats, he determined that despite the low sack count, Quinn remains one of the best pass disruptors in the NFL and is well-placed for a bounceback year in 2021.

"Quinn has eye-popping speed off the edge, posting an average get-off of 0.8 seconds or less in each of the last five seasons. He finished with the fourth-fastest average time to hurry (any time a player gets within 1.5 yards of a QB from snap to pass) in 2020 at 2.75 seconds. His sack total, however, is not what you'd expect for a player making $14 million per year. Quinn tied for the fewest sacks of any player who has posted a 12 percent or better pressure rate and 300-plus pass rushes in a single season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), meaning his sack total should be higher than it was in 2020."

This would be most welcome for the Bears. Remember that their secondary took some difficult hits this offseason. Kyle Fuller and Buster Skrine are gone. It isn't certain if coverage will be as good as it was last year. That means the pass rush really needs to step up. Quinn and Khalil Mack must deliver the good. Especially with a rather brutal slate of quarterbacks they'll have to face this year.

Robert Quinn isn't new to rebounds

He has done it a number of times in his career. In 2016, he had just four sacks during an injury-shortened season that spanned just nine games. Many wondered if his body was breaking down. Then a year later in 2017, he had a respectable 8.5 sacks in 15 games. Then in 2018 he again dipped to just 6.5 sacks before going big the next year with 11.5. So by his current trend, it's fair to expect the 31-year old will deliver a better season this time around. It may help that both Akiem Hicks and Bilal Nichols will be able to focus more on pass rush duties themselves. This due to the return of Eddie Goldman at nose tackle. His absence last year forced Hicks and Nichols to help fill the void in the middle, which likely hindered some of their pass rush potential. Having those two pushing the interior will grant Robert Quinn even more single-block opportunities.

There will be one other aspect in play.

Can the offense give him some leads to protect? Pass rushers usually produce the most sack production when the defense is playing from in front. That was not a benefit Quinn enjoyed much last season as the Bears offense routinely struggled to score points. It is hoped the arrival of Andy Dalton and Justin Fields can help to alleviate that problem. One thing is clear. He can't afford another disappointing year like the one he just had.