Analytics Predict Justin Fields Outplays #3 Pick Trey Lance As Rookies

It's crazy to think that Justin Fields was the fourth quarterback selected in the 2021 draft. Especially considering he was only the 11th pick in the 1st round. For context? Just two years ago, the fourth quarterback didn't go until the 42nd pick in the 2nd round when the Denver Broncos selected Drew Lock. That should give people an idea of how loaded the NFL felt this latest class was. Especially considering how highly Fields was graded by most. Yet in spite of all that, three quarterbacks went ahead of him. Easily the biggest surprise being Trey Lance out of North Dakota State. Despite only starting one full season against FCS competition, he won over the San Francisco 49ers enough for them to grab him at #3 overall. It was a bold move to say the least. No doubt the team has the utmost faith in head coach Kyle Shanahan. In fact, one expert said the best QB of the 2021 class would be whoever got picked by San Francisco because of Shanahan's system.

Not everybody agrees with that though.

Cynthia Frelund is the analytics expert for NFL Network. She decided to put her data and computer skills to the test. Her mission? Rank the top 5 rookie quarterbacks by who will be the most productive this season. Unsurprisingly, #1 pick Trevor Lawrence ranked first and #2 overall pick Zach Wilson ranked 2nd. A big reason for that was that both are expected to start right away for their respective teams. The surprise came when Field came in third ahead of Lance. Why? Multiple reasons.

"Fields provides coach Matt Nagy with the opportunity to diversify his attack. From 2018 to 2020, Fields produced a TD-to-INT ratio of 54:4 from a clean pocket, PFF's best such mark in that span. Fields also showed top-ranking production ability on deep passes (posting a 50 percent completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards since 2019, per PFF, ranking sixth-best in the FBS) and off play-action (with a 146.4 passer rating on play-action in 2020, third-best in the FBS, according to PFF), and he showed he could connect on attempts of 10-plus air yards when his base was not set (55.5 percent completion rate on such throws since 2019, per my computer vision). Those are all great indicators when it comes to projecting his NFL production."

People who like numbers can't really argue with that. In terms of pure accuracy as a passer, Fields was significantly above Lance in every category. Obviously Fields had a larger array of games to evaluate this but that isn't his fault. He played outstanding football for two years, made the college football playoffs twice, is a physical freak, and still only went 11th overall. This is why people love the draft. There is no predicting it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEiCfSGmsrc&ab_channel=ESPN

Justin Fields remains at the mercy of Matt Nagy

Several experts believe he is ready to play immediately. Even more so than Wilson in New York. However, the Bears head coach doesn't agree. He has a plan in place to introduce him to the NFL more gradually. Have him learn on the sideline, digest the playbook, and watch a veteran in his 10th season like Andy Dalton operate. It isn't a bad idea. Plenty of teams have done something similar with success. It is a matter of whether or not that plan breaks down. Will Nagy hold to it if Dalton struggles or will he feel pressured to start the Justin Fields era earlier than hoped? Only he knows the answer to that. One thing is for sure. The sooner Fields starts, the better the odds he fulfills the prediction of a productive rookie season. Not that the Bears are concerned with that.

Their eyes are squarely on the future.

Rightfully so. Rushing Fields into action just in an effort to convince ownership not to fire him would be irresponsible on Nagy's part. If he thinks the kid isn't ready yet, then he's doing the right thing by waiting. That may frustrate fans who want to see him play, but if the head coach handles this right then they'll have the next 10-15 years to get acquainted.