Analytics Predict Who Chicago Bears Will End Up Drafting

The Chicago Bears won't tell anybody what their plans are for the #1 pick. Yes, the popular idea is they will trade it. That remains the strongest possibility. However, there remains a likelihood they could stay put and make the pick. Perhaps the market for trades doesn't develop as GM Ryan Poles hopes, or maybe he falls in love with a particular player he isn't willing to pass on. Experts have weighed in with their thoughts. Predictably, the predictions vary. So what if one took human bias out of the equation?

Cynthia Frelund is among the most noteworthy analytics experts in the field. She uses straight numbers and computer simulations to determine how things will play out. She decided to conduct her own mock draft with these methods. Her choice for the Bears ended up being a familiar face, but how she arrived at it was a bit more technical.

"The Bears' defensive front has many areas to address, and (Jalen) Carter has the profile to offer immediate help. His burst is the best in the class, per computer vision, and his run stopping ranks in the top 15 percent in the past eight seasons. Alignment versatility should help change the Bears' ability to bring pressure and sacks, both areas where they ranked last in the league in 2022, with just 96 pressures and 20 sacks."

Honestly, when the film study and raw data line up like this, it's hard to deny. If the Bears stay put at #1, everything points to Carter being their choice.

The Chicago Bears must crystalize their thoughts on Carter.

Most evaluators agree the Georgia defensive tackle is the best pure talent in the 2023 class. When he is on, there wasn't an offensive lineman in college football that could block him. That said, his lack of production and conditioning questions have led some to wonder how impactful he can be at the NFL level. It is never good when a player has questions about his work ethic. That is why the interviews Chicago will undoubtedly have with him over the next month could determine what they do with the pick. If he blows them away, it is possible Poles may not want to pass on what he may see as a future superstar.

Carter has drawn comparisons to Philadelphia Eagles great Fletcher Cox. He has been the heart and soul for some great Eagles defenses with 65 career sacks, six Pro Bowls, and a Super Bowl ring. Now he's one game away from securing another. The best Chicago Bears defenses always had a dominant interior pass rush presence. Steve McMichael in the 1980s. Tommie Harris in the 2000s. Poles and Eberflus know how valuable somebody like that can be. If they think Carter is in that league, then staying put at #1 makes sense.