Analytics Reveal Chicago Bears Odds Of Landing A Top 10 Pick

Some Chicago Bears fans remain hopeful the team can still somehow pull out of their current nosedive. Even at 5-7 and on a six-game losing streak, the playoffs aren't totally out of the question. Winning out these last four weeks could still get them in. Except most aren't that naive. This team is cooked and it's evident on the field. That is why the majority of people have turned their attention towards the 2021 NFL draft. For the first time since 2018, the Bears will hold a 1st round pick. It's the first chance in some time for the team to land a potential difference-maker. Especially if they can somehow end up with a high choice. As of this moment, projections have the team holding the 13th overall pick next April. Not terrible but if they're on the hunt for a QB, being higher would be better.

So what are the realistic chances they can sneak into the top 10?

This is where it gets pretty interesting. Draft expert Dane Brugler and fellow Athletic colleague Ethan Douglas put together a projections outlook for every team as things stand. They ran several simulations to project the most likely draft order when the season ends. Based on their analytic work, the Bears aren't expected to move much from where they're currently at. The 12th, 13th, or 14th pick range. That being said, the possibility remains open for them to keep climbing the board. While the top 5 is all but out of the question at this point, there is still a significant chance for them to climb into the top 10.

Chicago Bears can help their cause by losing out

People can talk about which teams need to win and which need to lose in order for the Bears to crack the top 10. The reality is they control their own destiny. At 5-7 they're still a little too close to mediocre to pick that high. If they end up losing their remaining four games to finish 5-11, that drastically improves their chances. For context, three teams finished with that record in 2019. The Dolphins, Chargers, and Panthers. They picked 5th, 6th, and 7th respectively in the 2020 draft. Odds are getting that high will be tougher this year because there are currently 10 teams with fewer wins than Chicago and four teams with the same number of wins as them. So it's a pretty crowded race to get into the top 10 this year. That is why the team would be best served not winning another game. It gives them the best possible chance.

This is especially important given their greatest need.

It's hardly a secret the Chicago Bears will be quarterback hunting next year. Mitch Trubisky is a free agent. Nick Foles was an expensive failure of a trade. They sorely need a reboot at the position. Securing a top 10 pick in a class that appears to have some intriguing talents at the position would be quite fortuitous. Whether the next GM who replaces Ryan Pace can take advantage of that is another story.