Analytics Show Ryan Pace Drafting Has Steadily Improved For Bears

Ryan Pace is a controversial figure these days. Some people like some. Some people don't. Chicago Bears can't seem to reconcile their feelings on him. On the one hand, they love the guy for reviving the Chicago Bears defense and making the team respectable in the aftermath of the Marc Trestman years. On the other, they can't get past the fact that he passed on Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes for Mitch Trubisky. It feeds into the classic saying that it takes years to build something and seconds to destroy it. Would the Bears be Super Bowl champions today if they'd gotten that pick right four years ago? Maybe. All anybody can say is Pace came painfully close to cementing one of the best rebuilds in franchise history. Instead, he can only say he got them back to being where they were for most of the 2000s. Competitive but not a real contender.

Plenty of critics have continued to say Pace is a terrible GM.

They can't understand why he still has a job. Bad at drafting. Bad at signing free agents. Yet the McCaskey family continues to keep him in charge. As always, the media narrative has a certain slant against the Bears. They embellish the bad and minimize the good. Is this the case with Pace? Yes, and there is some evidence to back it up. Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus did an interesting study. He wanted to pinpoint the best drafting teams since 2017. After some numbers crunching, some interesting conclusions were reached. When accounting for positional value and weighing by the round a player was selected in, the Bears haven't done too bad according to his chart. They rank 12th in the NFL. Better than any team in the NFC North.

This illustrates why Ryan Pace is getting another shot

George McCaskey understands the decision to keep the GM is unpopular. Plenty of people want him gone. Many men who have missed on a quarterback pick so spectacularly like that would've been fired already. Yet Pace survives. Why? The team chairman believes it's because the GM is still growing and coming into his own. Trubisky was a mistake, yes. That isn't a strong enough reason by itself to dismiss a good GM. The conflicting part is McCaskey isn't totally without merit. Chart aside, there is evidence to suggest the man has improved his overall approach to the draft. Since 2018, no fewer than seven players he's selected have gone on to become capable starters on the team.

• Roquan Smith
• James Daniels
• Anthony Miller
• Bilal Nichols
• David Montgomery
• Jaylon Johnson
• Darnell Mooney

That is a "hit" rate of 36.84%.

An uptick from the 33.33% he started with his first two years in charge in 2015 and 2016. So yes, Ryan Pace has improved. The big question left unanswered is whether he can finally capture his white whale by finding a viable quarterback for the Bears. Word is he's pouring tons of hours into accomplishing this mission. If he can do so and put together one more good draft, the Bears might actually be in business this season. If not? He'll lament the too many missed opportunities when seeking a new job next year.