Analyzing the Salary Cap Impact of Bears' Rookies

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is in line for a big payday after being selected first in the 2024 NFL Draft. According to SpotTrac projections, Williams will sign a four-year deal worth roughly $39 million. This is an average yearly value of $9.8 million with an expected signing bonus of around $25.5 million.

Like Williams, players drafted in the first round receive a four-year contract with a fifth-year option. Players drafted in the second through seventh round receive four-year deals, and undrafted rookies receive three-year contracts. These terms were negotiated in the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), with most details about rookies written in Article 7.

Rome Odunze, the ninth overall pick, will sign a four-year deal (with an option) worth $22.7 million with an expected signing bonus of $13.3. An average yearly value of $5.6 million. The other Bears 2024 Draft picks will fall in as follows:

• Kiran Amegadjie’s contract will be $5.9 million with $1.4 million per year (#75)
• Tory Taylor’s contract will be $4.7 with $1.1 million per year (#122)
• Austin Booker’s contract will be $4.3 million with roughly $1 million per year (#144)

These contract numbers are predefined via the CBA, leaving little room for negotiation. NFL rookie contracts are "fixed" and "unalterable."

The Chicago Bears currently have $22.7 million in salary cap space. After signing the draft picks, they will be left with much less. That doesn't include any undrafted rookies that they sign. Their minimum salary is $795,000 per year, up from $750,000 in 2023. This is already factored into the cap space for the rookies who were drafted.

As you can see from the chart, the Chicago Bears are projected to have roughly $7.4 million in salary cap space once the drafted rookies are signed.

The three biggest salary cap hits Chicago has heading in the 2024 season are Montez Sweat ($25 million), Keenan Allen ($23 million), and Tremaine Edwards ($22.4 million). DJ Moore and the extensions for Jaylon Johnson and Cole Kmet follow in the $11 - $16 million range. As it sits today, the Bears have the 12th-highest salary cap in the league. New England sits at the top with a whopping $50.6 million.

Any remaining space must cover unforeseen expenses during the season, such as signing replacement players for injuries or securing more contract extensions for current players. Looking at you Keenan Allen. Moreover, this cap space could restrict the Bears from making splashy moves in mid-season trades or free agency without corresponding moves to free up additional space, such as restructuring existing contracts or cutting higher-paid veterans.

For example, Garnder Minshew signed a two-year $25 million deal with the Raiders. $15 million of that is fully guaranteed, representing a 2024 cap hit of $8 million. If the Bears were to sign a player like Ryan Tannehill, they would only be able to afford half of that. Tannehill would backup Williams rather than start, which could provide leverage in the negotiations, unlike Minshew, who will likely be the starting quarterback in Las Vegas.

There have also been defensive lineman rumors. Names like Yannick Ngakoue, Jonathan Allen, Calais Campbell, and Linval Joseph have been thrown around. Considering the Bears' lack of cap space, Ryan Poles and co. would need to design these contracts strategically.

Maneuvering the NFL salary cap is a skill that the best teams in the league take advantage of. If Chicago wants to keep the core they have assembled, they must get the pencil to paper and ensure they keep their top talent happy. One glaring issue is the money dedicated to wide receivers. Allen and Moore make up a $39.5 million cap hit this season; Odunze will pile onto that. There's no wonder why Poles doesn't feel rushed to sign Allen to an extension.

Looking forward, the Bears' management must remain vigilant and proactive. The NFL salary cap is expected to increase, as will the salaries demanded by top talent. Efficient cap management will involve making tough decisions on veteran contracts and planning for future drafts and potential big signings. Success in the NFL doesn't just come from having star players but from managing the cap in such a way that allows for depth across the roster, which is crucial for handling the long and often unpredictable NFL season.

Keep cookin', Mr. Poles.