Look, I’m not here to blow smoke. The Chicago Bears are 7-3, sitting atop the NFC North, and on paper, that sounds damn impressive. But anyone who’s watched this team every Sunday with a whiskey in hand and a scream stuck in their throat knows: this season has been one big, beautiful surprise. Week 12? That surprise runs straight into a wall called Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Steelers Coming to Town – With or Without Rodgers, It's Gonna Hurt
Aaron Rodgers might be playing with a busted wrist. Might not be playing at all. Doesn’t really matter — because the man is 24-5 against the Bears. If he’s upright and breathing, he’s a problem. If he sits? Mason Rudolph takes over, and while the name screams “mediocre backup,” don’t get cute. The guy has quietly posted a 139.85 passer rating in his last four meaningful games. And you better believe he knows exactly how to manage a game if the defense and special teams show up.
The Steelers don’t do sexy football. Historically they win with grit, discipline, and the kind of defense that makes quarterbacks see ghosts.
Bears: 7-3 Never Looked So Shaky
Yeah, we’re winning. But let’s not kid ourselves — five of those wins came in miracle fashion. Down late, defense bails us out, Cairo Santos saves the day. It’s not sustainable. We’re 25th in overall DVOA. Our special teams (outside of Santos' leg) are trash. Defense is Swiss cheese. And every win has been against a team with a losing record.
This is the NFL’s version of a sugar high. The crash is coming.
Offense: The Good, the Ugly, and the Caleb Williams Conundrum
Ben Johnson’s offense is cooking — until it isn’t. We’re 2nd in rushing, 13th in passing. That’s solid. Caleb Williams thrives in play-action and under-center looks, and Swift is quietly having a Pro Bowl-caliber season.
But Williams sometimes still can’t hit the broad side of a barn under pressure. Last week as an example, completing under 60% of your passes in today’s NFL is unacceptable unless you’re running for 100 yards a game — and he isn’t.
Rome Odunze has been that guy. DJ Moore’s been criminally underused. Loveland looks like a future stud. But red zone? We’re 20th. Too many field goals, not enough kill shots.
Defense: Opportunistic or Just Lucky?
We lead the league in takeaways. Cool. We also give up 26.4 points per game and have the pass rush of a high school JV team. No sacks against Minnesota. None. Zero.
Byard, Wright, and Edmunds are picking off passes like it’s a part-time job, but if we’re not getting pressure, that won’t last. Teams with actual quarterbacks will expose this.
The Matchups That Matter
- Bears O-Line vs. Steelers Blitz – Our line has been stellar, 4th-ranked per PFF. But Pittsburgh blitzes like they’re trying to collect souls. T.J. Watt’s not himself, but Herbig is quietly dangerous.
- Caleb Williams vs. The Blitz – This is the nightmare matchup. The Steelers blitz at the third-highest rate in the league, and while Caleb's been a modern-day Houdini avoiding sacks, that magic has limits. If he gets dropped three times, history tells the story — he's 3-13 in games when that happens. Pressure breaks rhythm, and when Williams gets rattled, the whole offense sputters.
- Turnovers – Both teams live off takeaways. Whoever blinks first might be screwed.
- Third Downs – Bears are decent. Steelers are meh. But in a slugfest, those conversions are golden.
Final Verdict
I want to believe. Nah, F*CK THAT - I still believe. Let's watch Caleb ball out, Swift carries us, and us finally beat a good team. Even if that’s not the most likely script.
Rodgers or no Rodgers, Pittsburgh’s defense is going to bring the heat, but our offense is ready for that kind of pressure. THANK YOU BRIAN FLORES.
But hey — this doesn’t mean it's going to be easy. Again, we’re still building something. We’ve got the pieces. We’re ahead of schedule. And Sunday? Sunday’s is going to show the world that the Bears aren't f*ckin around.
Final Score: Bears 20, Steelers 17.
