This is the first time in almost a decade that the
Chicago Bears quarterback position is in a violent state of flux. All three players who occupied that part of the depth chart in 2016 are gone. Jay Cutler was released. Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley became free agents. GM Ryan Pace clearly wanted a clean break across the board to start fresh and he got it.
Of course now comes the hard part. Decided what to do next. It's clear the team has formulated the early stages of a plan. Connor Shaw was re-signed. The belief is he'll provide quality depth and competition for the backup jobs. Then there is Mike Glennon. The former Tampa Bay Buccaneers backup whom the team has decided will be their first attempt at finding a new start in 2017.
What many are dying to know at this point is what will the team do in the draft? Do they still draft a quarterback early or do they wait? There are more than a few who think waiting is the better strategy. It's possible to find that future starter the team can develop for the future in days two and three. Do the numbers support that though?
It's honestly difficult to understand where this confidence at drafting quarterbacks in later rounds came from. Sure the Bears and fans have watched other teams pull it off recently with hits like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and of course Tom Brady. Maybe throw Kirk Cousins in there too. Yet the evidence, at least from the perspective of Chicago, offers minimal grounds for this strategy.
Since the start of the Super Bowl era in 1966, the Bears have drafted a total of 26 quarterbacks in the second round or later. They are spread out as follows:
- 2nd round: 2
- 3rd round: 1
- 4th round: 2
- 5th round: 2
- 6th round: 6
- 7th round: 6
- Defunct rounds: 7
Over that span a total of zero quarterbacks in that group either reached a Super Bowl or went to a Pro Bowl. In fact only six of them managed to actually become starters in the league. Four of those six posted losing records during their brief opportunities. So who was the most successful of the entire bunch?
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None other than Kyle Orton. He started 33 games between 2005 and 2008 for the Bears, posting a respectable 21-12 record. However, that was really thanks to playing on a talented team. Orton posted a rough 71.1 quarterback rating across that span. He proceed to have a journeyman career after leaving Chicago, finishing with a 42-40 record as a starter.
So again it must be iterated. Where is the confidence coming from that the Bears are suddenly a franchise qualified for locating and developing non-first round quarterback into an above average starter? There is zero evidence to support that case. For those who have confidence in John Fox, just know that's ill-advised at best.
In his career as a head coach, Fox has taken in six quarterbacks via the draft. Only two of them started any games and claimed victory in just one of them (out of 15). The man has no track record of success at developing rookies. Why do people think the team was so aggressive in pursuit of Mike Glennon?
People can talk up guys like Nathan Peterman, Davis Webb and Brad Kaaya all they want. The bottom line is the odds are stacked heavily against any of them ever being starters in the league, much less any good. Oh and as a reminder, Glennon falls into that same category. He was a third round pick in 2013 for the Buccaneers.
Thus we're back to the searching question. Can the Bears honestly justify passing on one of the top quarterbacks in this upcoming draft under the belief they will find their future starter in later rounds?
History is against them in every conceivable facet.
