Bears Insider Calculates The Odds of Mitch Trubisky as the 2020 Starter

The Chicago Bears stated without much room for speculation that Mitch Trubisky would be the starter in 2020. Of course, it's not a surprise they said that at the time. It was the end of the season and they didn't really have an alternative on the roster they could throw into the competition. Both Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray are out of contract this March. So there would've been little point to them basically declaring the Trubisky era over at that point.

Since then, rumors have persisted the team is planning to make changes to the quarterback room. The idea being they'll bring in some legitimate competition. Somebody who can challenge Trubisky for that starting job. It offers some hope that the Bears will give themselves a window to escape the purgatory they are in. However, longtime insider Hub Arkush isn't feeling so optimistic. He doesn't trust GM Ryan Pace will make any sort of significant move to derail the idea of his prized draft pick getting another shot.

"Alyse, Willard and Bill, I’d say it’s 80-90 percent that Trubisky will be the Bears starting quarterback on opening day of the 2020 season, and if his ability to keep the job throughout the year is to have lower odds than that, it really depends on who they bring in to back him up/compete with him.

Unless Nagy has a complete 180 on his feeling on starters playing in exhibition games, it's hard to imagine what Trubisky could do – or not do – over the summer to lose the starting job. The potential for injury is the main reason I’m not going for 95-100 percent."

Mitch Trubisky will have the inside track in any battles

It's a fair point. Winning a competition at any position would require head-to-head battles in live-action. Head coach Matt Nagy would have to alter his preseason philosophy to provide one at quarterback. This after not allowing Trubisky to throw a single pass in the 2019 preseason. Besides that, the Bears are light on any significant resources to get a QB who would be viewed as a true upgrade over Trubisky. They have no 1st round pick and barely $20 million in cap space with 22 pending free agents.

Not ideal.

This is not to say it's impossible. The Bears could create more cap space if needed and quarterbacks drafted outside the 1st round have had instant success before. See Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott as examples. That said, the odds provided by Arkush seem realistic. Unless the top brass is truly motivated to make a hard push at the position, Trubisky appears relatively safe.