Here we go again, Bears fans. Week 3 brings Dallas to Soldier Field, and instead of national talking heads hyping up Chicago, all the noise is about how Dak and CeeDee are about to run wild on our beat-up defense. Vegas has the Bears as a slim +1.5 favorite, but let’s be real — that’s not respect, that’s Vegas daring you to bet on us.
And yet, as bad as this start has been, there’s still a flicker of hope. The Bears are 0-2, sure, but they’ve also shown flashes — an 11-point fourth-quarter lead against Minnesota, and moments where Caleb Williams looked like the guy we drafted him to be. This game isn’t just about analytics; it’s about whether Chicago has any damn pride left to fight back in front of the home crowd.
Two Teams That Can’t Stop a Nosebleed
Let’s not sugarcoat it: both defenses are disasters. Dallas gave up 450 passing yards to Russell Wilson last week. Russell Wilson! That’s the same Russell Wilson people were writing off as washed, and Dallas made him look like an MVP candidate. Meanwhile, the Bears are giving up nearly 40 points per game and lead the league in passing touchdowns allowed. Opposing QBs have had clean pockets all day because Chicago is generating pressure on barely one out of every five dropbacks.
- Dallas: 30th in total defense, 29th in DVOA, bottom of the league in stopping the run. Their defensive front is soft, giving up chunk plays to even mediocre ground attacks.
- Chicago: 28th in yards allowed, 31st in EPA/play defensively, with the secondary decimated by injuries and the pass rush non-existent.
This matchup isn’t exactly the ’85 Bears vs the Doomsday Defense — it’s two units that can’t stop anybody. Translation: this isn’t going to be a grind-it-out NFC North slugfest. It’s going to be a shootout, with both offenses trading haymakers, and Soldier Field better be ready for fireworks.
Why the Bears Still Have a Shot
Yeah, Dak Prescott is accurate, and CeeDee Lamb is a monster. But let’s not act like this Cowboys defense is something to fear. They’ve given up 30.5 points per game, and if Williams can tighten up his accuracy — currently an ugly 18.5% off-target rate — the Bears can move the ball.
DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are due for breakout moments, and if Johnson actually leans into the run game behind D'Andrew Swift and company, Dallas’ soft front can be gashed. In fact, Dallas ranks dead last in run defense, which lines up perfectly with Chicago’s biggest offensive issue so far: the ground game. If there’s ever a week for Ben Johnson to establish the run, it’s this one — and as we know, his whole offense builds off a dominant ground attack. Chicago’s offensive line isn’t perfect, but they’ve held up better than expected. Give Caleb a clean pocket, and Dallas’ secondary is just as cooked as ours.
Caleb Williams vs Dak Prescott
Let’s be fair to the rookie — he’s not Dak yet. Prescott is hitting nearly 70% of his passes, Williams is barely at 61%. But stats only tell part of the story. Caleb is being asked to drag a broken roster into relevance, while Dak has a top-five supporting cast around him. Dallas’ receivers rank top-10 in yards after catch, and their offensive line ranks 6th in pass-block win rate per ESPN. By comparison, Chicago’s line sits in the bottom third, and Caleb has been pressured on nearly 38% of his dropbacks. That’s a brutal context for a qb making only his nineteenth NFL start.
And still, Caleb’s ceiling is higher — he’s got the arm talent, mobility, and improvisational skill that can turn busted plays into game-changers. His 8.1 average depth of target ranks in the top half of the league, showing he’s not afraid to push the ball downfield. These are the exact kinds of games where legends start to carve out their story: home underdog, national spotlight, a defense begging to be shredded. No one will remember his rookie completion percentage if he goes toe-to-toe with Dallas, drops a few highlight-reel throws, and pulls out a win. That’s how you change a narrative overnight.
The Eberflus Factor
Here’s the subplot that pisses me off: Matt Eberflus, fired in Chicago after that brutal losing streak, is back in Soldier Field calling Dallas’ defense. He knows our players, our habits, our weaknesses — every crack in the armor from watching this team collapse under his watch. You know he’s itching for revenge and would love nothing more than to walk back into Soldier Field and make our rookie quarterback look lost.
This is also personal for the fanbase. Bears fans spent months calling for Eberflus’ firing, chanting in frustration as the losses piled up. Now he comes back wearing a star on his chest, with a chance to rub our faces in it? That’s a nightmare scenario. If there’s ever a time for Ben Johnson to prove he belongs in the big chair, it’s against his predecessor. Out-scheme him, punch him in the mouth with the run game, and send him back to Dallas with the same taste of failure he left us with. Because letting Eberflus come in here, expose our flaws, and embarrass us on our own field would be more than a loss — it would be a gut punch to the entire franchise.
Betting Breakdown
I’m not going to lie: betting Chicago right now is a heart-over-head move. Analytics tilt Dallas’ way. But if you’re a Bears fan, you ride with the team.
- Bears +1.5: The home crowd matters. Caleb’s breakout has to start somewhere.
- Over 50.5: Neither defense can stop a lawn chair.
- Upset Pick: Bears ML (+100): Soldier Field magic, baby. Call me crazy, but it’s happening.
What Chicago Needs to Win
- Caleb Williams’ Accuracy – Can’t be missing easy throws. Has to hit his layups.
- Feed DJ Moore – Stop wasting possessions. He’s your WR1 — use him like it.
- Defensive Pride – No one’s asking them to be ’85 Bears, but at least force a damn punt.
- Ben Johnson’s Playcalling – Enough talk about bad practices. Scheme your way out of this mess.
- Special Teams Edge – If Dallas has Brandon Aubrey, we need a return game spark.
Final Verdirct
This game is more than Week 3. It’s about the Bears proving they’re not a punchline. Lose here, and the season spirals. Win, and suddenly you’ve got a signature victory against a playoff-caliber team. For Caleb, it’s a chance to flip the rookie narrative. For Ben Johnson, it’s a chance to prove he’s not in over his head.
Dallas is coming in confident, but Soldier Field is starving for a reason to believe. This is the week to give it to them.
Score prediction: Bears 30, Cowboys 28.
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