So let’s kill the hype before it strangles the truth: Ben Johnson isn’t walking into Chicago and turning the Bears into the 2024 Lions overnight. If you’re expecting a playoff run in Year One, slam the brakes and recalibrate. Based on hard data, contextual clues, and the brutal reality of NFL football, Johnson’s first season probably ends with 7 wins — maybe more if he cheats fate.
First-Time Bears Head Coaches: Mostly Meh
Let’s not act like Chicago’s had a golden touch with new hires. Over the last 10 head coaches, the average win total in Year One is a limp 5.8. Outside of Matt Nagy's Cinderella 12-4 debut in 2018, most of these guys barely sniff .500. Matt Eberflus? 3-14 faceplant. Marc Trestman? Fired faster than you can say "Canadian Football League." So while Johnson brings fresh energy, history says don’t bet your rent on fireworks.
First-Time NFL Head Coaches: Slightly More Encouraging
Zoom out to the league level, and rookie head coaches average 7 wins their first season with a 44.7% win rate. Even better, they’re 41.7% more likely to make the playoffs than veteran coaches switching teams. That’s great news — if Johnson was coaching, say, the Rams. But he's not. He’s in Chicago, a city where offense goes to die and rebuilds drag on longer than Cubs droughts.
Why Ben Johnson's Resume Still Matters
Now let’s give the man some damn credit. He turned Jared Goff from Lions punchline to MVP dark horse. His Lions offense dropped 33.2 points per game last season (Pro Football Reference), good for best in the league. Three straight years in the top 5 for yards and points (PFF). The man’s a play-calling savage. His creativity made DC's lose sleep and turned Detroit into a legitimate juggernaut. If anyone can breathe life into Chicago's corpse of an offense, it's this guy.
The Roster: Talent? Yes. Playoff-Ready? Not Yet.
Let’s start with Caleb Williams. Kid’s got zip, but in Year One he ate 68 sacks —tied for a league high. That’s more hits than a TikTok trend. Still, he flashed enough (3,541 yards, 20 TDs) to give Bears fans hope. Johnson gets him in Year Two, which should help. Add in DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift, and suddenly there's something to work with.
But this ain't Madden. The offensive line was a disaster, and while they've brought in help, line chemistry doesn’t click overnight. And the defense? It’s solid, not elite. Jaylon Johnson and Montez Sweat bring juice, but they can’t cover for a front seven that still has holes. Plus, this team has to survive the NFL’s second-toughest schedule. 11 games against teams with winning records last year? Woof.
Division of Doom
The NFC North isn’t just tough — it’s a damn gauntlet. Lions went 15-2. Vikings? 14-3. Even the Packers went 11-6 and look like they finally unboxed Jordan Love 2.0. That’s six division games where the Bears are probably underdogs. Let’s not pretend a 7-10 season in that bloodbath would be anything but progress.
Vegas and the Pundits: Divided But Realistic
Vegas oddsmakers have Chicago’s win total at 8.5, with the over at +105. Translation: They're hedging, and so should you. Public sentiment is blindly optimistic (because Bears Twitter drinks preseason Kool-Aid like it's spiked). And yeah, I've been caught sipping on it too. But expert predictions range all over the damn place — some throwing around 11 wins, others pegging them for 5. The smart money says the truth lies somewhere in the boring middle.
Here’s a breakdown of prediction models:
| Method | Wins | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Historical Bears Average | 5.8 | 15% |
| NFL First-Time Coach Avg | 7.0 | 25% |
| Improvement Over 2024 | 7.0 | 20% |
| Vegas Line | 8.5 | 25% |
| Regression Model | 8.0 | 15% |
| Weighted Average | 7.3 | 100% |
So yeah, 7 wins. Not sexy, but not a disaster either.
Scenario Breakdown: Pick Your Poison
- Best Case (20%): 11-6. Caleb levels up fast, the O-line holds, defense locks in. Miracle stuff.
- Good Case (35%): 9-8. The system works, growing pains are minimal, and Johnson gets coach of the year buzz.
- Expected Case (30%): 7-10. Offense improves, but the schedule eats them alive.
- Disaster Case (15%): 5-12. Caleb regresses, line collapses, Johnson looks overwhelmed.
Final Verdict
This team’s not ready to win big, but for once, it feels like they're building something that isn’t made of popsicle sticks and prayer. Seven wins would mark progress. Not enough to silence the haters, but enough to give Bears fans a reason to believe this isn’t another coaching clown show.
Ben Johnson isn’t the savior. Not yet. But he might be the first guy in a long time with the brains, balls, and blueprint to make this franchise respectable again.
