Both History And Math Point To What Chicago Bears Do With #1 Pick

The Chicago Bears hold the #1 pick for the second year in a row. That is a rare opportunity for a franchise. Since the merger in 1970, it has only happened six times. Chicago is somewhat unique. Unlike those other six teams, they traded the #1 pick when they held it last year, secure a large package of assets from the Carolina Panthers headlined by wide receiver D.J. Moore and their 1st round pick in 2024. That pick became #1 overall after they finished 2-15 this past season. Now, people are anxious to know what GM Ryan Poles will do.

He's taking a quarterback. Wait, what? How can I seem so confident about that? A couple of reasons. For one, in four of those six instances where a team held the top pick in back-to-back years, a quarterback was selected with one of those picks. Then, there is the track record of the spot itself. Since the turn of the millennium, no fewer than 17 quarterbacks have gone first overall.

The track record speaks for itself.

• Bryce Young - Too soon to tell
• Trevor Lawrence - Solid quarterback with a playoff win in his first three years
• Joe Burrow - Star quarterback with two deep playoff runs
• Kyler Murray - Two-time Pro Bowler
• Baker Mayfield - Has won playoff games for two different franchises
• Jared Goff - Three-time Pro Bowler
• Jameis Winston - Pro Bowler and 5,000-yard passer
• Andrew Luck - On course to the Hall of Fame before injuries forced him into retirement.
• Cam Newton - League MVP
• Sam Bradford - Had a couple of solid seasons despite injury problems
• Matthew Stafford - Future Hall of Famer
• JaMarcus Russell - Bust
• Alex Smith - Three-time Pro Bowler
• Eli Manning - Two-time Super Bowl winner
• Carson Palmer - Three-time Pro Bowler
• David Carr - Bust
• Michael Vick - Four-time Pro Bowler

The Chicago Bears should at least end up with a "good" quarterback.

Only two of those names above were outright busts. The rest ranged from decent to great. Eleven of them made the Pro Bowl at least once. So while it's true the Bears could completely whiff on the pick, the fact is their odds are as good as they'll ever be for landing somebody capable. Pole had good teachers for scouting the position. Scott Pioli was with the Patriots when they drafted Tom Brady. John Dorsey drafted Patrick Mahomes and Mayfield. The Bears GM knows what traits to look for.

Justin Fields didn't get as much help as he should've, but good quarterbacks usually still find a way to show they belong. Over the past three years, the Chicago Bears have learned that he is a terrific runner with average passing skills for this level. That isn't going to win them games in the playoffs. Poles gave him his shot. Not enough was shown. Most GMs don't get an opportunity like this. The Bears are going to take a quarterback at #1 because the odds favor them far more than sticking it out with somebody if they've seen for two full seasons.