The Chicago Bears don't come across as a good team, but most feel they shouldn't be as bad as their record suggests. They have far more talent on paper than they did a season ago. Their defense is younger and more athletic. Offensively, they have more firepower, led by D.J. Moore. Justin Fields is in the second year of the same offensive system. Yet somehow, the Bears are still 1-5. Injuries have played a part. Both the offensive line and secondary have been hit hard by them. Still, it shouldn't be this bad.
This is where the concept of luck comes into play. People can talk about bad decisions, but oftentimes, it's bad breaks that result in losses. Data analyst Tom Bliss has crunched numbers to determine which teams have been the luckiest and unluckiest this season. This is done through dropped interceptions by the opponent, dropped passes by the opponent, field goals and extra points attempted, and fumbles recovered. These are factored into his Win Probability Added formula. Fittingly, the Green Bay Packers are the 4th-luckiest team this season. The Bears are 31st, with particular misfortune on fumbles recovered.
Chicago has fumbled eight times this season. They've lost four of them, with two being returned for touchdowns, proving the difference in the games.
The Chicago Bears don't have the talent to overcome luck like this.
Good teams can handle one or two bad breaks every week. Chicago isn't in that position. They banged up in too many spots, can't get consistent play from their quarterbacks, and don't have a strong enough defense to keep the score close. Unless this luck changes in the coming weeks, it feels unlikely they will be able to stop the spiral from continuing. Rookie Tyson Bagent is taking over at quarterback. While he may provide some juice with his fiery enthusiasm, rookies make mistakes. This team can't survive too many of them.
Sadly, this feels like an annual issue for the Chicago Bears. If they didn't have bad luck, they'd have no luck at all. The truth is good teams make their own luck in many ways. The Bears haven't been a good team for a long time. Until that changes, it feels like every single bad break they catch will cost them victories. That is the life of not being among the NFL's best. Still, it doesn't feel like too much to ask if the football gods could be a little more lenient on them the rest of the year.
