Chicago Bears At New Orleans Saints: Wild Card Playoff Prediction

The Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints game figures to be one of the least-covered by the media this weekend. If only because everybody pretty much expects the same outcome. There's a reason the Saints after favored by over 10 points. It's a matchup of a 12-4 team against an 8-8 team. Why should anybody believe the Bears have a hope of taking down such a well-rounded opponent in that dome? Yet they play the games for a reason. Upsets happen all the time. Maybe Chicago finds a way to work some craziness when nobody is giving them a chance. It's not like they have anything to lose at this point. Expectations couldn't be lower. So might as well go out and try to shock the world. Here is a breakdown of the matchup ahead and what to expect.

Chicago Bears need a complete game to topple the Saints

Storylines:

Jobs on the line - Being back in the playoffs is a nice feeling for the Bears, but it feels like there is genuine pressure on a lot of people to win this game. Mitch Trubisky is a free agent and fighting for his future as a starting quarterback. Ryan Pace is on shaky ground as GM after his fifth season in six years failing to see his team post a winning record. Even head coach Matt Nagy can't afford another ugly loss. Some of these guys could be jobless by Monday if the team doesn't perform. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXN7Pel4A2A&t=1s&ab_channel=NFL Swan song of Drew Brees - The Saints should operate with plenty of urgency in this game as well. There is a growing belief that future Hall of Fame quarterback Brees will likely retire after this season concludes. This is his final real opportunity to get that second ring that has eluded him for over a decade. This might be all around the best roster he's played with including that championship team in 2009. Everybody wants to send him off properly.

Injuries:

Roquan Smith (elbow) - Smith has played like an All-Pro in 2020 for the Bears defense. He's been everywhere. One of their best players. He is living up to everything that was promised as the 8th overall pick in 2018. So to see him suffer a nasty elbow injury one week before the playoffs is a killer. Especially given how important he is against the run and covering the pass over the middle. If he can't go, he'll be almost impossible to replace. Alvin Kamara (COVID) - Probably the most dangerous offensive weapon in the NFL. Kamara gave the Bears fits back in November with over 150 yards from scrimmage. That was at Soldier Field. He could be an even bigger problem on that fast Superdome turf. The question is whether he'll be cleared in time for the game after contracting COVID-19. It's still not official but recent evidence suggests he will likely play. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXeuwoTnTas&ab_channel=DingProductions

Key matchups:

Cole Kmet vs. Alex Anzalone - Chicago has worked harder each week to get Kmet more involved in the offense. The results have been promising. In addition to having a nice pair of hands, he's proving to be a load to tackle after the catch. One area of the Saints defense that has proven somewhat vulnerable is their inside linebackers in coverage. Anzalone especially. Kmet is exactly the sort of talent who can exploit that given his size advantage. Michael Thomas vs. Jaylon Johnson (?) - The superstar Saints receiver is finally back at practice after missing several weeks with nagging injuries. New Orleans is no doubt thrilled to have him back. Chicago is hoping their promising rookie Johnson will return as well after missing two games with a shoulder problem. He's practiced this week and it's hopeful he will play. That will be a matchup that could go a long way in deciding how well the Bears defense can hang in there.

X-factors:

David Montgomery - If anybody has become the driving force of the Bears offense, it's Montgomery. When he goes, they go. The running game is their bread and butter now. When it's effective, Mitch Trubisky is able to make things happen off play action. Montgomery had a solid performance in the last meeting against the Saints with 89 yards on 21 carries. Chicago will need even more from him if they're going to control the clock and keep New Orleans' offense on the bench. Jared Cook - The Chicago Bears defense has had an issue covering opposing tight ends all season. Cook had his moments in the last meeting with 51 yards and a touchdown. There is no question Sean Payton will have some plays ready in the back pocket for when the time is right. Cook is still a big and athletic target with strong hands. Even with all the other weapons the Saints have, the Bears have to account for him.

Prediction: Saints win 38-24

This game has the same sort of feel like the one the Bears just got done playing against Green Bay. They'll probably hang with the Saints for a half or three quarters. However, eventually, New Orleans' sheer array of offensive talent will wear out the defense and help them put some extra distance between the teams in the final 15 minutes. They'll likely benefit from one or two Trubisky interceptions. Another unfortunate reminder the Bears just aren't at the level they need to be.