The first round of the NFL draft is often where teams can be made or broken. Few teams know this better than the
Chicago Bears. Since the year 2000 they have made 15 picks on day one of draft weekend. Just two of them managed to start five or more seasons with the team. Two. TWO! Out of 15. They were middle linebacker Brian Urlacher and defensive tackle Tommie Harris.
The rest are a mix of talent busts, damaged goods and misused studs who were shipped elsewhere. It's no wonder this franchise hasn't been able to keep up with the elites like Pittsburgh, New England, and Green Bay. Here's their numbers by comparison.
- Pittsburgh: 8 out of 17
- New England: 8 out of 15
- Green Bay: 7 out of 17
It's a pretty straightforward lesson. If you don't hit on the top picks, it's hard to win in the NFL. There is no doubt the Bears need to get it right next year if they want any hope of no longer being the welcome mat of the league. How do they pull it off? By understanding sticking to what they've done best.
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Teams always talking about changing the culture but sometimes it becomes clear throughout history that certain things won't change. When looking back over the past 50 years of the Super Bowl era, the Bears have developed certain tendencies regarding their success in the draft. Specifically in regards to which positions they target early.
With the #3 pick in their pocket for 2017, it's absolutely imperative they get a good player out of it. Failing to do so could threaten to derail this rebuild they're committed to. Sometimes the best thing to do is lean on history for an answer on which direction they should look. Do they really go after a quarterback? Is a pass rusher the more logical approach? Or perhaps there is a surprise twist people haven't seen.
Turns out the raw data reveals some interesting details. Here is a breakdown of every major position the Bears have drafted in the first round since 1966. It details both the total number picked at each position and the number who went to at least one Pro Bowl in Chicago.
Defensive Back
- Drafted: 5
- Pro Bowlers: 2
Defensive End
- Drafted: 9
- Pro Bowlers: 1
Defensive Tackle
- Drafted: 4
- Pro Bowlers: 2
Linebacker
- Drafted: 5
- Pro Bowlers: 3
Quarterback
- Drafted: 4
- Pro Bowlers: 1
Running Back
- Drafted: 8
- Pro Bowlers: 2
Offensive Line
- Drafted: 11
- Pro Bowlers: 2
Wide Receiver
- Drafted: 5
- Pro Bowlers: 0
So there are a few things that can be extrapolated from this information. First off, it appears the
Kevin White selection in 2015 was not a good omen from the start. Top receivers just seem to have a really hard time in Chicago. Beyond that is the telling situation regarding their third overall pick this April.
According to numerous draft experts, the top prospects are made up of two defensive ends, a linebacker, a running back and a safety. Breaking that down the Bears appear set at linebacker with
Danny Trevathan,
Jerrell Freeman and
Nick Kwiatkoski. The same goes for running back after the emergence of
Jordan Howard. Thus that leaves the two defensive ends and the safety.
Based on the data available, the Bears have had an 11.11% hit rate in regards to defensive ends since the start of the Super Bowl era. On the other hand, 40% of their defensive back choices wound up becoming Pro Bowlers in Chicago. It should also be pointed out that another of them (Walt Harris) made it to Hawaii after he left the team. So technically that could be increased to 60% hit rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgC70X2ivaA
So given how much the Bears seem to embrace history, perhaps they should take careful note of it when they go on the clock this April. The defense is in dire need of help at safety. Projections indicate two prospects (Malik Hooker and Jamal Adams) are top 10-worthy and will be available. To top it off this team hasn't missed often when they take defensive backs early.
Just putting it out there.
