It's not a fun time to be Ryan Pace right now. The Chicago Bears GM must feel like 2018 is so far away. His rebuilding project was reaching a zenith. The franchise had the #1 defense in the NFL, a young quarterback in Mitch Trubisky who seemed to be finally ascending and a head coach in Matt Nagy who led them to a 12-4 record. Halfway through 2019, and suddenly the two biggest moves of his entire tenure are looking more and more like misguided mistakes.
Trubisky is on pace to throw for less than 3,000 yards this season with just 16 touchdown passes. A massive step down from a season ago. Worse still, it appears Nagy's once-vaunted offense is coming under increased scrutiny as it struggles to even gain yards every week. Never mind score points. Plenty of experts including former quarterbacks like Dan Orlovsky have spoken out in heavy criticism of Nagy's system.
Namely, it's Nagy's unwillingness to bend the system to the strengths of his quarterback. He is demanding Trubisky play more from the pocket, something he was never the best at even in college. Then there's the unwillingness to run the offense with more tempo, something he was actually quite good at in college. There is an air of stubbornness and lack of common sense that purveys Nagy and how he operates this offense.
One might even call it...inexperience. This is where one can see an unsettling pattern. A pattern that starts at the top with Pace himself.
Ryan Pace hasn't valued experience enough
For all the good things Pace has done for the Bears since 2015, and there have been plenty of good, he has exhibited a consistent flaw in his evaluation process that has well and truly come back to haunt him. It is a steadfast unwillingness to take proven experience and success into account before acquiring talent, whether it be players or coaches.
Just look at his first draft as evidence.
His first-ever draft pick is 7th overall. It's the pick that everybody will remember about his legacy moving forward. Does Pace go for a safer option? Somebody with a proven track record across two or three years as a starter? Nope. He goes right for the home run swing in Kevin White, a freaky athletic wide receiver with a world of upside but also just one season of experience at the Division I level at West Virginia.
This trend held true moving forward. Leonard Floyd, his 2016 first round pick, only played edge rusher part-time at Georgia and never had more than 6.5 sacks in any one season. Yet Pace still felt he was the next great sack master for the Bears.
Then of course came Trubisky.
A kid with a great skill set and a million-dollar smile. He had a squeaky clean background and was lauded for his leadership. He also started just 13 games in college and failed to beat out a quarterback at North Carolina who never ended up playing a snap in the NFL. Those concerns have since become clearly evident as Trubisky has failed to grasp advanced concepts of playing the position like throwing from the pocket and reading defenses.
When looking back now, is it any surprise that Pace used this same flawed approach in his search for the next Bears head coach?
Matt Nagy in so many ways was the Trubisky of coaching candidates in 2018. Young, personable, dripping with upside, a great leader, and dangerously inexperienced. Especially as an offensive play caller. Nagy had only been an offensive coordinator since 2016 and didn't take over the call sheet from Andy Reid until halfway through 2017. So Pace somehow became convinced that Nagy was his version of Sean Payton after half a season? That should've been a red flag at the time.
It was even more concerning when Mark Helfrich arrived as offensive coordinator.
A guy who had even less experience (zero) with coaching in the NFL than Nagy and also no experience calling plays. The head coach had basically hired him for one reason. That's his understanding of spread offenses in college and a sharp mind for crafting unique plays. That isn't a bad thing to hire a coach for, but it should not be the sole job of an offensive coordinator. There is nobody on the staff with any legitimate play calling experience. Nagy couldn't pass the call sheet on even if he wanted to.
His clear lack of experience and understanding of how to adjust to his players is making difficult matters even worse. There's no discipline or accountability. Bears receivers lead the league in drops. The offensive line is on pace to allow more than 40 sacks and their running game is among the worst in the NFL too.
All of this is the creation of Ryan Pace and Ryan Pace alone. He has proven himself to be less of a Ted Williams and more of a Mark McGwire. He doesn't try to hit for average or put the ball in play. Every swing he takes is trying to send it over the fence. White? Floyd? Trubisky? All of them were clear all-or-nothing gambles based on immense physical upside despite limited proven production.
It shouldn't be a surprise that Pace applied this same thinking process to how he found his next head coach. He saw what "could be" rather than what was. GMs who operate like that too often find themselves striking out and walking back to the bench with their heads down.
