Data Pinpoints Biggest Threat To Chicago Bears Landing #1 Pick

Right now, the Chicago Bears have a death grip on the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. They have a 1-5 record, second-worst in the NFL, and they hold Carolina's 1st round pick, and they are 0-6. That currently means the Bears hold the rights to the #1 and #2 picks next year. Of course, there are 11 games left to play. A lot can change in that period, and there are more than a few contenders for that top spot. Four other teams also sit at 1-5: Denver, Arizona, New York, and New England.

That begs the question. Who should Bears fans be most nervous about undercutting them for that coveted top spot? Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune crunched some numbers, revealing the strength of schedule for each of those teams for the rest of 2023. It wasn't particularly close. That is the Arizona Cardinals with a .581. Here is the rest of their slate.

• at Seahawks
• vs. Ravens
• at Browns
• vs. Falcons
• at Texans
• vs. Rams
• at Steelers
• vs. 49ers
• at Bears
• at Eagles
• vs. Seahawks

Six of those teams currently have winning records. The rest sit at 3-3. Chicago is the only opponent on that schedule with a losing record. Also, keep in mind they've lost their last three games by a combined score of 95-45. Their best offensive player, James Connor, just went on Injured Reserve. It looks bleak.

The Chicago Bears do have one hope.

Reports indicate quarterback Kyler Murray is on track to start practicing soon after tearing his ACL last season. This suggests he could return to action somewhere around Week 9 or 10. That would drastically improve Arizona's chances of stealing a few games down the stretch rather than having to rely on Joshua Dobbs. Meanwhile, the Bears' quarterback situation went from shaky to bleak. Justin Fields will miss this week against Las Vegas with a dislocated thumb, and there is a possibility he will land on IR. That means he misses at least four games. This would put the offense in the hands of undrafted rookie backup Tyson Bagent.

It is difficult to imagine the Chicago Bears winning many games in that situation if any at all. They've already lost to Denver and Minnesota. Both were one-win teams when that happened. This truly feels like a two-team race between them and Arizona. Bill Belichick still coaches New England. They'll find a way to sneak a few victories despite their roster issues. The Giants will do the same now that Saquon Barkley is back. Denver could be a threat, but Sean Payton and Russell Wilson are still semi-capable.

It's Bears vs. Cardinals at this point until something changes.