Denver Broncos At Chicago Bears: Week 4 Prediction

The Chicago Bears never thought things would be this bad so early in 2023. Sure, the first few games were tough, but they'd spent months improving the roster. They had more talent than last year. It wasn't crazy to think they could at least stay close in each game, maybe winning one or two this time. Nope. It's been three consecutive blowouts, or six if you count the three they suffered at the end of last season. This team is trending in the wrong direction. You know it's bad when an opponent that just got beat by 50 points is favored to beat you.

So, let's explore this matchup against the Denver Broncos.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears is going to be messy.

Background:

People have already dubbed it the "Caleb Williams Bowl." Understandably so. These two teams suffered rock-bottom defeats last week, with Denver losing 70-20 and Chicago falling 41-10. Both are not playing good football. This game will be about deciding who is worse. They both have terrible defenses. The Bears have homefield advantage, but the Broncos seem to have the edge at quarterback and head coach. One constant this week is that everybody expects an ugly game, regardless of the outcome.

Injuries:

Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) - The Chicago Bears secondary was already a mess last week with Eddie Jackson and Kyler Gordon both on the shelf with injuries. Now their most reliable cornerback is down too. Johnson has played well to start this season. However, the hamstring issue has kept him out of practice. It feels unlikely he will be able to play without aggravating it further. That means the Bears will have to face Denver down three starters in the secondary.

Frank Clark (hip) - Pass rush has been a huge factor in Denver's defensive misery over the past two weeks. They can't get to the quarterback with any regularity, and it's exposing their secondary to big plays. They had hoped Clark would help ease those concerns, but he's been nursing a hip problem. He hasn't practiced all week. Barring an unexpected change, he likely won't play. If ever there was an opportunity for Fields to get comfortable in the pocket, this might be it.

Key matchups:

D.J. Moore vs. Patrick Surtain - The Bears traded for Moore to help the passing game, and he's done his part. They just haven't funneled the ball to him enough. That figures to change sooner or later. Denver is almost sure to put their best cornerback on him throughout the game. That is Surtain. While the former All-Pro is off to a rough start this year, he's still an excellent player. The Broncos will use him to blanket Moore and try forcing Fields to use his other targets.

Yannick Ngakoue vs. Mike McGlinchey - Denver spent a pretty penny on the veteran tackle this off-season. They haven't gotten what they'd hoped for, as McGlinchey has allowed 13 pressures across three games. While the sack numbers aren't there, Ngakoue has done a good job generating regular pressure on the quarterback. If the Bears are smart, they will try getting him matched up on McGlinchey as many times as possible.

X-factors:

WR Marvin Mims - Not much has gone right for the Broncos lately, but Mims looks like a steal. The rookie receiver leads the team with 195 yards despite only seven catches. He also has a kick return for a touchdown. Mims is a big-play threat waiting to happen. There is no way Sean Payton won't try to take shots to him against the Bears' depleted secondary. It comes down to whether Eberflus can prepare them for it.

RB Roschon Johnson - Denver has the worst run defense in the NFL. They allowed 350 yards against Miami last week. It's a safe assumption they won't magically fix all of their problems in a week. Johnson is averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season, demonstrating his excellent strength and contact balance. The Bears would be wise to feed him. Given the Broncos' recent track record, they will break eventually if you stress them enough.

Prediction: Broncos win 26-20

Games are often decided by which teams have the most decisive advantages. When looking at these two, both are bad. However, Denver has far more proven commodities at both head coach and quarterback. Payton won a Super Bowl in New Orleans and is still a great offensive mind. Russell Wilson isn't who he was a few years ago, but he's played pretty well so far this season. The Bears' offense isn't equipped to take advantage of the Broncos' obvious defensive woes.