Mitch Trubisky isn't dead yet but it certainly feels like he's on life support. Unsurprisingly, this has led to a ton of backlash on GM Ryan Pace. For all the good things the man has done rebuilding the Chicago Bears into a talented team, his trade up in 2017 to grab Trubisky over the likes of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes is fast becoming one of the most colossal misfires in recent history. There is no doubt in many minds that Trubisky could be done after this season.
This raises a highly important question.
If the Bears do indeed chase after another potential franchise quarterback, does Pace deserve to be the guy that leads that search? Most GMs don't survive beyond whiffing on a highly drafted quarterback but some have. In order to answer this question, it might be best to evaluate how many of those men did with their second opportunity. Were they able to adjust their evaluations and score a hit on the next try or did they stick to the original script?
Here is what I found.
Ryan Pace would be in very rare company if he hit the second time
Looking back over several 1st round busts since 1990, I was able to pinpoint six different GM/personnel guys who made those picks and were eventually given another chance, either with the original teams they worked for or new ones who gave them a second crack at the job. Here is how things played out.
Bill Tobin (Bears 1987-1992, Lions 2001-2002)
Jim Harbaugh
- 26th overall, 1987
- 77.6 career passer rating
- 66-74 record
Joey Harrington
- 3rd overall, 2002
- 69.4 career passer rating
- 26-50 record
Charley Casserly (Redskins 1989-1999, Texans 2002-2005)
Heath Shuler
- 3rd overall, 1994
- 54.3 career passer rating
- 8-14 record
David Carr
- 1st overall, 2002
- 74.9 career passer rating
- 23-56 record
Tom Flores (Seahawks 1989-1994)
Dan McGwire
- 16th overall, 1991
- 57.3 career passer rating
- 2-3 record
Rick Mirer
- 2nd overall, 1993
- 63.5 career passer rating
- 24-44 record
Vinny Cerrato (Redskins 2000-2009)
Patrick Ramsey
- 32nd overall, 2002
- 74.9 career passer rating
- 10-14 record
Jason Campbell
- 25th overall, 2005
- 81.7 career passer rating
- 32-47 record
Ozzie Newsome (Ravens 1996-2018)
Kyle Boller
- 19th overall, 2003
- 69.5 career passer rating
- 20-27 record
Joe Flacco
- 18th overall, 2008
- 84.2 career passer rating
- 98-72 record
Rick Spielman (Vikings 2006-present)
Christian Ponder
- 12th overall, 2011
- 75.9 career passer rating
- 14-21-1 record
Teddy Bridgewater
- 32nd overall, 2014
- 88.3 career passer rating
- 22-12 record
All told, the evidence isn't the most inspiring. Of the six general managers listed, four of them outright missed on their second chance, sometimes with an even worse quarterback than before. Only Newsome and Spielman managed to improve from their first blown opportunities. Flacco never became a star in Baltimore but he did win them a Super Bowl. Bridgewater went to a Pro Bowl in Minnesota before tragically suffering that horrific knee injury in 2016 that almost ended his career.
Suffice to say if the Bears do decide to move on from Trubisky in the near future, they'll be taking a considerable risk if they let Pace be the man to determine who the next quarterback will be. The one thing he'd have going for him the second time around is Matt Nagy being in his ear. That added expertise could be of considerable benefit.
Then again Tom Flores was an actual quarterback himself and that didn't help much.
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