The Chicago Bears' 2024 draft prospects haven't changed much for the past month. At 2-6, they remain firmly in the running for a top-5 pick in their own right. They also hold the 1st rounder of the Carolina Panthers, who are 1-6 and control the #2 overall spot at present. Only the 1-7 Arizona Cardinals stand ahead of them. It feels like Kyler Murray is nearing a return, so that might improve the Bears' chances of once again securing the #1 overall pick. Nine games remain in the season. Plenty can still happen. They are a top contender in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes.
Or at least, that's what would've been said a month ago. Things have changed since then. The white-hot hype surrounding the star USC quarterback has cooled after some lukewarm performances against Notre Dame and Utah. Dane Brugler of The Athletic, one of the top draft analysts in the business, believes the declarations of Williams' demi-godhood are dangerously overblown.
I’m all for a ban of the word “generational” when talking about college prospects, because it sets near-unattainable expectations and makes a player like Williams an easy target for criticism. That said, Williams (2,646 yards passing, 34 total TDs) remains an extremely impressive prospect. He has an above-average arm and a natural feel for accuracy, and his ability to weaponize his creativity remains a differentiating factor between him and most quarterbacks.
Williams is fantastic at navigating chaos, but he does hold the ball too long at times. Often he has no choice, either because a defense gets immediate pressure with its front four or his receivers haven’t created separation. And when that happens, Williams feels forced to put on the superhero cape, which can lead to negative plays.
Brugler went so far as to declare Williams isn't even the best QB in the class.
That honor goes to North Carolina's Drake Maye, whom he views as a superior physical specimen who has considerably improved his overall operation as a pocket passer this season.
Cut from the same cloth as Justin Herbert, Maye (2,559 yards passing, 22 total TDs) continues to impress with his on-field command despite inconsistent help around him. A tall, well-put-together athlete, he has an explosive release with the touch to threaten every level of the field.
He still makes a few more reckless decisions than you’d want, but his timing has improved, and his aggressive decision-making is more of a strength than a weakness.
Caleb Williams' aura of invincibility is gone.
He's been fantastic whenever he faces unranked competition, gobbling up stats at a ridiculous pace. However, every time he runs into competent, well-coached opponents, he looks mortal. Notre Dame intercepted him three times. Utah held him to 56% completed passes. His track record against ranked teams is unsettling. That is before getting into the fact he's undersized for the position, holds the ball too long, and has a good-not-great arm. Yes, he should still end up being a good quarterback, but the Bears can't let the hype overwhelm their evaluations.
GM Ryan Poles values accuracy, decision-making, and pocket management highly in his quarterback scouting. Maye seems to have a slight edge in those categories. The big issue is whether the Bears can bring themselves to draft another North Carolina quarterback after what happened with Mitch Trubisky. Schools don't determine whether a player will be great in the NFL. Clemson was notorious for future NFL failures until Deshaun Watson changed that. If the Bears think Maye has legitimate star potential, they should draft him, even if Caleb Williams is available too.
