The Chicago Bears will travel to Minnesota on Monday night to face the Vikings as head coach Matt Eberflus will look to pick up his first win against a divisional opponent since being hired in January of last year. Chicago's defense will look to rebound after a historic loss last Sunday against the Lions, which featured a blown 12-point lead with over four minutes left in the game. Although the Bears' defense has steadily improved as the season has progressed, despite their three-win record, there is one vital defensive stat that has cost them several wins in 2023.
The Bears' Defense Has Continually Dropped Interceptions That Could Have Changed The Outcome Of Their Games
Since hiring Eberflus in 2022, Chicago's defensive philosophy has been a Cover-2 scheme, with one of the traits of the scheme being an increase in interceptions because of the number of defenders being utilized in pass coverage. With the Cover-2, pass-rush pressure is created by the defensive line, allowing the other seven players to fall back and defend an area or specific offensive player on a passing play. Under former Bears' head coach Lovie Smith, the Bears utilized a Cover-2 defensive scheme from 2004 to 2012, in which the defense was one of the league's best in forcing turnovers, especially creating interceptions.
Although the Bears started the 2023 season without an interception in their first two games, the unit has recorded nine interceptions since Week 3. Through 11 games, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds leads Chicago's defense with three interceptions this season. Despite the improved production from the Bears' defense, they have had the opportunity to be even better but have not been able to capitalize on potential gift turnovers as they have dropped many interceptions.
Against the Lions last Sunday, one of the reasons why the Bears had a 26-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter was because the defense had picked off quarterback Jared Goff three times. Although Goff had thrown three interceptions, he should have been picked off five times, as cornerback Jaylon Johnson dropped two potential takeaways from Detroit. Johnson's first drop would have been a game-altering interception as it could have been returned for a touchdown and halted a Lions touchdown as they would score a touchdown a few offensive plays later.
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The second interception drop by Johnson would have practically ended the game late in the third quarter, as no one was around him when Goff tried to throw it away. The takeaway would have occurred deep in Lions' territory and enabled Chicago's offense to not only score more points but take more time off the clock. Without the additional turnovers, Detroit was able to mount the late-game comeback as the margin was still within two touchdowns.
Game-altering dropped interceptions have been seen more than once this season, as several Bears players have dropped passes from opposing quarterbacks that could have significantly influenced the outcome of the final score. In Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, safety Jaquan Brisker dropped a potential interception after jumping a slant pass thrown by quarterback Baker Mayfield at the start of the game. A turnover would have set Chicago's offense up in the red zone and probably changed the final score, as the Bears lost 27-17 but trailed by only three with less than two minutes to go in the contest.
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Against the Saints back in Week 9, Chicago's defense dropped two potential interceptions from opposing quarterback Derek Carr, where they would lose by seven points. On both dropped passes by Bears' defenders, the Saints offense would later score points on the same drive. A week prior, despite losing by more than 17 points, Chicago's defense had two opportunities to pick off Chargers' quarterback Justin Herbert, which could have ended drives that eventually ended in points for the opposing offense.
Even when the Bears have won this season, their dropped opportunities have had the potential to cost them a victory. Two weeks ago against the Carolina Panthers, Chicago's defense dropped three would-be interceptions, including one on Carolina's final possession of the game. If the Panthers had not missed a game-tying field goal and won in overtime, linebacker Jack Sanborn would have been heavily scrutinized for dropping a game-ending takeaway.
The Dropped Takeaways Are Hindering Chicago's True Potential
Although the Bears have only three wins on the season so far and had a 14-game losing streak dating back to last year, the defense has played significantly better since their Week 3 loss to Kansas City. Chicago's defense, since giving up 31 points or more twice in the first three weeks of the 2023 season, has improved as a unit significantly week by week. The number of points allowed could have been much less, given the numerous dropped turnovers during that time.
A win last week against the first-place Lions would have been Eberflus' signature win as a head coach with Chicago, as the team outplayed and dominated a proven Detroit team. With a victory, the Bears would have been in playoff contention with a favorable schedule down the stretch. A five-interception day to highlight a win would have been perfect for Eberflus and his defensive scheme, as many fans and analysts have been highly critical of both this season.
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The inability to seize the turnover opportunities provided to Chicago's defense doesn't just hurt the head coach but also hurt his players too. Johnson is regarded as one of the best cornerbacks in the league but has only recorded four interceptions during his young four-year career, which hurts his recognition on a national scale. Additionally, the Bears' best cornerback is hurting himself financially, as a two-interception game with a return touchdown would have been his second time this season accomplishing the feat while increasing his value with his free agency status looming at season's end.
There is positive momentum with the Bears' defense heading into the team's final six games of the 2023 season. Chicago has a solid chance to have a winning record over their remaining games if the defense can build on the interception success they had last week against Detroit. Even if the Bears make a late-season run, it is likely their missed opportunities from prior games will sink any legitimate optimism. A few held-on interceptions is the difference in Chicago from being a three-win team and a potential .500 team.
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