ESPN Reveals Percentage Odds Caleb Williams Becomes An Elite QB

Chicago Bears fans find it difficult to get too excited these days. Yes, they're about to draft one of the most talented quarterback prospects in recent memory. Then again, they've heard this stuff before. Too many times, they've been assured this pick, that free agent or this trade acquisition would finally fix the team's quarterback woes. None of it has worked. Just since 2017, they've watched two 1st round picks flame out before ever getting to a second contract. Those memories are still fresh, making it difficult for people to get hyped for the imminent arrival of Caleb Williams.

So, to help illustrate the tremendous opportunity in front of the Bears, people have hammered home how good the USC star is with video clips and lots of data. Aaron Schatz of ESPN is one of the top analytics experts in the field. He decided to construct a projection model that would help visualize the likely NFL careers for each top quarterback prospect. This was done by factoring in college passing numbers, teammates' quality, opponents' quality, and the number of years started. Over 50,000 simulations were then run. Once the data was clear, he gave percentage odds on whether they'd be a bust, adequate starter, upper-tier starter, or elite.

His findings on Williams were beyond encouraging.

"Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler's starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection."

Caleb Williams should at least be adequate.

If Schatz is correct, there is a better than 75% chance Williams will become an adequate starter. That constitutes somebody who probably gives you around 3000-3500 passing yards and 20-25 touchdowns every year. Given what this organization has worked with in recent decades, even that would be a considerable step up. Anything beyond that would be exactly what Bears fans have hoped for. His 21% chance of becoming elite is no less exciting, especially when none of the other prospects in this class reached 15%. This further validates that the Bears are making the right choice.

The only thing left to determine is whether they can build around him. GM Ryan Poles has done an admirable job setting the table for Caleb Williams' arrival. D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen have joined Cole Kmet in the passing game. Darnell Wright, Teven Jenkins, and Braxton Jones anchor a reliable offensive line. D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert headline a deep and versatile backfield. On top of all of that, he won't have to carry a terrible defense as he did throughout college. Chicago's will be good under Matt Eberflus' direction.

This is the best setup before drafting a quarterback the Bears have ever had. If it is going to work for once, this is the time.