GM Ryan Poles felt trading the #1 pick with the Carolina Panthers was the right thing to do for the Chicago Bears. This organization had gone too many years with not enough draft picks. Ryan Pace's aggressive mentality came at a price. Now the organization is paying for it. To compete regularly for a Super Bowl, they must keep a steady inventory of picks, draft well, and develop players properly. Thanks to this move, the Bears now have ten picks in 2023. If it stays that way, Poles will have made 21 total selections in his first two years as GM.
Securing D.J. Moore in the deal was a boon for a team devoid of offensive playmakers. However, former GM Jeff Diamond believes the true benefits of the trade haven't been felt yet. The critical piece in his mind is the 1st round pick Carolina handed over in 2024. Getting a 1st rounders of any kind is never a bad thing. It grants an opportunity with strong odds to land another good player. What makes it even better in Diamond's mind is that the pick could end up sitting high on the board next spring. He explained on The 33rd Team.
"Moore fortifies Chicago's passing attack for Justin Fields and will start opposite Darnell Mooney. From Chicago's perspective, there is a reasonable chance that Carolina's first-round pick in 2024 could be a top-10 pick."
The Chicago Bears understood the assignment.
Trading with Carolina came together for several reasons. One was the fact they were willing to offer Moore in the deal. Another was Poles' history with Panthers GM Scott Fitterer. However, what is lost on some is how the Bears perceived their trade partner. There is a reasonable chance they felt a trade with Carolina was beneficial because it might end up landing them a high 1st round pick next year. It isn't crazy to think that way. There are reasons for the Bears to believe it will end up that way.
For one, the odds are good that Carolina will start a rookie quarterback this season. It will be whomever they take at #1 overall. Here are the records of every #1 pick who started as a rookie.
- David Carr: 4-12
- Eli Manning: 1-6
- Alex Smith: 2-5
- Matthew Stafford: 2-8
- Sam Bradford: 7-9
- Cam Newton: 6-10
- Andrew Luck: 11-5
- Jameis Winston: 6-10
- Jared Goff: 0-7
- Baker Mayfield: 6-7
- Kyler Murray: 5-10-1
- Joe Burrow: 2-7-1
- Trevor Lawrence: 3-14
Some have more success than others, but all but one of them ended up with a losing record in their first year. One argument is Carolina has a pretty good roster. They finished the year 5-4 after a brutal start. However, that came under a different coaching staff with different schemes. New head coach Frank Reich is an unknown quantity, and his tenure in Indianapolis didn't exactly end well.
Maybe a mediocre division helps them, but Diamond isn't wrong. There is a realistic chance the Chicago Bears hold a top 10 pick in next year's draft.
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