Caleb Williams has been on a bit of a rollercoaster through the first seven games of the season. After starting with seven touchdowns and one interception in four games, he's thrown three interceptions and only two touchdowns in the past three games. People have begun to wonder if the Chicago Bears quarterback is regressing. It's the fans' worst nightmare. However, several experts have emerged in the past couple of days to argue that the opposite is true. Signs are growing that Williams has evolved as a passer step and step each week.
The numbers don't yet reflect it due to various circumstances.
Benjamin Solak of ESPN believes there is one factor in play that hasn't been mentioned enough. It has to do with the changes head coach Ben Johnson made to the offensive scheme following the bye week.
Another reason Williams' play is herky-jerky belongs to coach Ben Johnson and the nature of the Bears' passing game. Chicago is sixth in run rate over expectation. As a team, it is seeking a consistent ground game to set up an explosive passing attack.
That philosophical choice isn't just to protect Williams but also to protect the offensive line. Since the Bears flipped left tackle from Braxton Jones to Theo Benedet in Week 6, they're third in run rate over expectation. In that same three-week span, their designed rollout percentage of 16.3% is also third. They're running the football, trying to move the pocket and insulating their young left tackle, and they're asking Williams to make bigger downfield throws than are required of other quarterbacks.
This isn't a bad approach -- in fact, it's smart. It plays to Williams' strengths (arm talent, throw on move) while concealing team weaknesses. But it means Williams' numbers and lowlights look worse than those of other young quarterbacks (such as Bo Nix and Daniels) who are given more underneath opportunities.
Basically, this approach makes sense, but it comes at a cost.
It helps protect the weaknesses of Theo Benedet in pass protection, but it also magnifies the importance of the shorter throws Williams makes. He doesn't have as many as other young QBs, and that means missing any of them can be costly. It forces him to connect more often on those longer throws, which is difficult in the NFL. This, along with the constant penalty issues, is why the passing game struggles to find a rhythm.
Caleb Williams must make do for the time being.
It's not like Johnson is doing this because he's ignorant of his quarterback's plight. The hard fact is, he doesn't trust the left tackle. Benedet is a great athlete, but he has technical issues that can be exacerbated at times by his short arms. Running the ball frequently helps hide those problems. However, opponents can expose them when they get the Bears in long down-and-distance situations. That tends to happen a lot when you're the second-most penalized team in the NFL.
It probably isn't a coincidence that Caleb Williams had his best game (4 TDs vs. Dallas) on a day when the offense only had three penalties. The signs of growth are there. Everything depends on him continuing to work hard and learn the offense. As he grows more familiar, the more consistent play should follow. There is a big opportunity to build some confidence over the next four weeks with three games against league-worst defenses.
