For the first time in eight years the Chicago Bears are actually a team on the hunt for a new quarterback. They rode the Jay Cutler roller coaster for a long time. Longer than some might've. There were some ups, plenty of downs and just all-around disappointment on both sides. Could it have worked out? Perhaps, had some thing been managed differently. No one will ever know. After the Bears finished 3-13 it's clear they are looking for a fresh start under center. Free agency and the trade market could be options, but the overwhelming majority feel the upcoming NFL draft is the way they must go. After all, it's been 14 years since Chicago drafted a quarterback above the third round. They'll have high selections in every round including the #3 overall pick. This is the best opportunity they've had in a long time. It's a matter of figuring out who their best option might be. To answer that, one must look at the two men running the show in GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox. Knowing their preferences and desires will make the search much easier to conduct. Among what makes up a top QB, these are attributes one or the other have mentioned over the past two years.

Accuracy

How consistently can he hit his passing targets without a missed or bad throw?

Turnovers

Can he protect the football and not give it away, thus hurting the defense?

Red Zone Scoring

When he gets close to the end zone, does he not settle for field goals?

Sackability

Does he leave himself open too often to sacks and excessive hits?

Home vs. Away

Playing at home is fine but can he maintain the same poise in hostile environments?

Rushing Aid

Some QBs don't need a strong running game to function. Do they?

Firepower

Which among them have that rare trait of elevating the play of those around him?

Experience

Is he raw from not playing much or can he step in fairly quick? This article will use stats and math in each category to help determine which of the top quarterbacks in the class rank the highest. Then at the end their rankings will be tallied up and a final score determined. Whomever has the lowest score will be deemed the best Pace and Fox quarterback based on their parameters. (continue to next page from top) [video width="854" height="480" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Mitch-Trubisky-vs-Stanford-2016000240.000-000304.001.mp4"][/video]

Accuracy

Everything always seems to start with arm strength when talking quarterbacks. That’s fine and all, but Pace and other notable GMs have stressed constantly for years that accuracy is more important. Throwing hard means nothing if they can’t consistently hit the receivers. Measuring how accurate a QB is through numbers is difficult though. Normally watching tapes is the best way to judge it. However, there is another method that offers an idea. Completion percentage by itself doesn’t tell the whole story of whether a quarterback is accurate. Some can beef up that stat through mostly short throw. That is why the average yard per pass attempt is critical to helping in that determination. If the prospect has a high completion rate and a high yards per pass attempt, then it can pretty much be said he’s an accurate passer.

1. Mitch Trubisky – 68% completion at 8.4 yards per pass
2. Deshaun Watson – 67.5% completion at 8.2 yards per pass
3. Patrick Mahomes – 64.6% completion at 8.3 yards per pass
4. Deshone Kizer – 60.7% completion at 8.4 yards per pass
5. Davis Webb – 62.1% completion at 7.2 yards per pass
6. Brad Kaaya – 60.6% completion at 8.4 yards per pass
7. Josh Allen – 55.9% completion at 8.6 yards per pass

[video width="854" height="480" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/BYUs-INT-seals-Poinsettia-Bowl-victory.mp4"][/video]

Turnovers

This is probably the most straightforward category on the list. John Fox is an old school, defensive coach. There is nothing that grinds his gears more on the planet than a quarterback who constantly turns it over. That’s probably what soured him on Jay Cutler (5 INTs in 137 pass attempts) and later Matt Barkley (14 INTs in 216 pass attempts). Nothing hurts a defense more than giveaways. So finding a QB who isn’t prone to giving opponents extra opportunities will be a priority. Measuring each quarterback will go as follows:  the number of interceptions they threw compared to the number of passes attempted. Then the percentage of how often they throw an interception. The lower the percentage is, the higher they rank.

1. Mitch Trubisky – 6 INTs in 447 pass attempts (1.3%)
2. Brad Kaaya – 24 INTs in 1, 188 pass attempts (2%)
3. Patrick Mahomes – 25 INTs in 1, 164 pass attempts (2.1%)
4. Davis Webb – 21 INTs in 981 pass attempts (2.1%)
5. Deshone Kizer – 19 INTs in 695 pass attempts (2.7%)
6. Deshaun Watson – 30 INTs in 1, 014 pass attempts (2.9%)
7. Josh Allen – 15 INTs in 372 pass attempts (4%)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OP_-BGcDv-w

Red Zone Scoring

One of the primary problems that bedeviled the Bears offense throughout 2016 was their frustrating inability to punch the ball in for touchdowns whenever they got in the red zone. According to stats they managed a TD on just 51.01% of their trips inside the opposing 20-yard line. Much of why they struggled was because none of their quarterbacks had a feel for making plays in that area. This is going to be a big area of study during the draft. Which of the QBs had the most success getting six points when he had chances? The stats will be divided into parts. How many red zone trips his offense made in 2016, how touchdowns were scored and then how many of those touchdowns were directly connected to him. Both throwing and running will be counted. Then the stat will determine how often the offense scored a TD in the red zone and the percentage of those TDs that the quarterback had a hand in.

1. Patrick Mahomes – 46 TDs in 63 attempts

• 73% of trips resulted in TD
• 82.6% of TDs tied directly to QB (26 passing, 12 rushing)

2. Deshaun Watson – 51 TDs in 72 attempts

• 70.8% of trips resulted in TD
• 68.6% of TDs tied directly to QB (27 passing, 8 rushing)

3. Mitch Trubisky – 36 TDs in 55 attempts

• 65.4% of trips resulted in TD
• 63.8% of TDs tied directly to QB (18 passing, 5 rushing)

4. Deshone Kizer – 30 TDs in 48 attempts

• 62.5% of trips resulted in TD
• 80% of TDs tied directly to QB (16 passing, 8 rushing)

5. Josh Allen – 40 TDs in 53 attempts

• 75.4% of trips resulted in TD
• 47.5% of TDs tied directly to QB (12 passing, 7 rushing)

6. Davis Webb – 32 TDs in 54 attempts

• 59.2% of trips resulted in TD
• 75% of TDs tied directly to QB (18 passing, 6 rushing)

7. Brad Kaaya – 31 TDs in 54 attempts

• 57.4% of trips resulted in TD
• 54.8% of TDs tied directly to QB (16 passing, 1 rushing)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InZAKZcuv6s

Sackability

There are many things that go into why a quarterback gets sacked. A lot of it is the power of the opposing pass rush and the quality of blocking up front. However, another key part of it is the quarterback holding the ball too long. Sometimes they are trying to keep a play alive, others they just can’t find anybody open and refuse to throw it away. QBs who do that often increase their “sackability” rating. In other words they don’t know how to protect themselves well enough by getting the ball out fast or living to play another down. This category will factor the number of sacks taken by every quarterback measured against their total number of dropbacks for passes. The more sacks they had on fewer amount of dropbacks, their sackability rating goes up. This is a category where the lower the rating, the higher the ranking.

1. Davis Webb – 24 sacks in 1, 005 dropbacks (2.3%)
2. Deshaun Watson – 28 sacks in 1, 042 dropbacks (2.6%)
3. Mitch Trubisky – 20 sacks in 466 dropbacks (4.2%)
4. Patrick Mahomes – 54 sacks in 1, 218 dropbacks (4.4%)
5. Brad Kaaya – 61 sacks in 1, 249 dropbacks (4.8%)
6. Deshone Kizer – 48 sacks in 744 dropbacks (6.4%)
7. Josh Allen – 27 sacks in 400 dropbacks (6.7%)

[video width="854" height="480" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/DeShone-Kizer-Notre-Dame-vs.-Texas-2016000809.000-000833.001.mp4"][/video]

Home vs. Away

One of the marks of a great quarterback is how they perform in all situations. Specifically regarding home games and away games. Most understand that it’s more difficult to perform at a high level on the road. The stadiums and fields are unfamiliar. Weather is different. The fans are quite hostile. Being able to shrug all of that off and perform just as well or even better than at home is an exceedingly rare trait. Do any of the 2016 class have it?

1. Mitch Trubisky – 162.0 rating at home, 169.0 rating on road (+7 differential)
2. Deshone Kizer – 143.9 rating at home, 146.5 rating on road (+2.6 differential)
3. Davis Webb – 135.3 rating at home, 133.3 rating on road (-2 differential)
4. Deshaun Watson – 167.0 rating at home, 153.5 rating on road (-13.5 differential)
5. Brad Kaaya – 154.3 rating at home, 138.9 rating on road (-15.4 differential)
6. Patrick Mahomes – 159.4 rating at home, 137.5 rating on road (-21.9 differential)
7. Josh Allen – 160.5 rating at home, 130.3 rating on road (-30.2 differential)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAetJsUSEnQ

Rushing Aid

One way to determine how effective a quarterback actually is centers around whether the defense is gearing up to stop him and even then can’t do it. In other words, they have absolutely no fear of the running game. A time-tested offensive philosophy is that by running the football well, it takes pressure off the QB and allow him more opportunities for big plays. So this category will determine the strength of the rushing attacks each prospect had in 2016, subtracting of course the yards they themselves ran for. The fewer yards and TDs provided by the running game, the higher the QB ranks.

1. Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) – 958 yards and 10 TDs
2. Deshone Kizer (Notre Dame) – 1, 488 yards and 10 TDs
3. Mitch Trubisky (UNC) – 1, 588 yards and 16 TDs
4. Davis Webb (Cal) – 1, 852 yards and 16 TDs
5. Deshaun Watson (Clemson) – 1, 869 and 20 TDs
6. Brad Kaaya (Miami) – 1, 973 yards and 24 TDs
7. Josh Allen (Wyoming) – 2, 353 and 24 TDs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRMR9tVB6nI

Firepower

A common saying is a quarterback is only as good as his team around him. However, often a great way to measure the singular brilliance of one is by determining how little protection or weaponry he has. Can he make plays happen without a star receiver or consistent blocking? A good way to help figure it is by finding out whether the schools of each QB on the list are also putting out quality offensive talent (not counting running backs) in the draft. Using CBS Sports and Walter Football big boards, here is a breakdown of the caliber of talent each of them suited up with every Saturday. Please note the list only includes prospects that are eligible for 2017, not future drafts. The less draftable talent the quarterback had around him, the higher he goes on the list.

1. Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech)

• OT Ryan Melton – UDFA
• C Tony Morales – UDFA

2. Davis Webb (Cal)

• OT Steven Moore - UDFA
• OG Chris Borrayo - UDFA

3. Josh Allen (Wyoming)

• TE Jacob Hollister – 7^th round
• OG Chase Roullier – UDFA
• WR Tanner Gentry – UDFA
• WR Jake Maulhardt - UDFA

4. Deshone Kizer (Notre Dame)

• OT Mike McGlinchey – 1^st round
• OG Quenton Nelson – 1^st round

5. Mitch Trubisky (UNC)

• WR Ryan Switzer – 3^rd/4^th round
• OT Jon Heck – 7^th round
• C Lucas Crowley – 7^th round
• Mack Hollins – UDFA
• Bug Howard – UDFA
• Caleb Peterson – UDFA

6. Brad Kaaya (Miami Fl.)

• TE David Njoku – 1^st/2^nd round
• WR Stacy Coley – 4^th round
• OG Danny Isidora – 4^th/5^th round
• TE Standish Dobard - UDFA

7. Deshaun Watson (Clemson)

• WR Mike Williams – 1^st round
• OG Tyrone Crowder – 2^nd round
• TE Jordan Leggett – 3^rd round
• WR Artavis Scott – 3^rd/4^th round
• C Jay Guillermo – 7^th round

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyYVeUz21ic

Experience

Something that NFL teams are constantly aware of with a QB prospect is how long that player has actually played. Specifically the number of starts they have under their belt. Logic of course dictating that the fewer starts they have, the less experience they are. The less experienced they are means they might be less prepare for the NFL level. Coaches prefer quarterbacks who have been in the fire for a good amount of time, seen defensive varieties and learned how to command a huddle. It’s hard to do that in just a handful of games. In that context, here is the pecking order from most starts. Keep in mind these only include the years where the quarterback was declared the starter at the beginning of the season.

1. Brad Kaaya – 38 games
2. Deshaun Watson – 29 games
3. Patrick Mahomes – 25 games
4. Deshone Kizer – 25 games
5. Davis Webb – 20 games
6. Josh Allen – 14 games
7. Mitch Trubisky – 13 games

[caption id="attachment_80933" align="aligncenter" width="1140"] Credit: Max Faulkner Star-Telegram[/caption]

Final Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes – 3, 3, 1, 4, 6, 1, 1, 3 = 22 2. Mitch Trubisky – 1, 1, 3, 3, 1, 3, 5, 7 = 24 3. Deshone Kizer – 4, 5, 4, 6, 2, 4, 4 = 29 4. Deshaun Watson – 2, 2, 6, 2, 4, 5, 7, 2 = 30 5. Davis Webb – 3, 2, 6, 4, 5, 4, 2, 5 = 31 6. Brad Kaaya – 5, 5, 7, 2, 6, 6, 6, 1 = 38 7. Josh Allen – 7, 7, 5, 7, 7, 7, 3, 6 = 49

One thing is for sure about this 2017 quarterback class. It's not perfect. Every single prospect had at least one notable flaw about their game that would give scouts and coaches pause. Still, through eight categories of rigorous testing it appears Patrick Mahomes of Texas Tech just edges out Mitch Trubisky of North Carolina for the top spot. His greatest strengths are his ability to score in the red zone, lack of need for a consistent running game and ability to create offense with limited weaponry. These are demands often put on franchise quarterbacks. They're expected to elevate the players around them. Not the other way around. Mahomes can do that. He also scored well in accuracy and turnovers, which will likely end up being two big ones with Pace and Fox. In the end the final selling point for him will be interviews. Chicago will have a chance to meet him and the others on February 28th at the Scouting Combine or during their respective pro days.