People always like to have an optimistic outlook on draft picks. They want to determine the highest ceiling a player can reach without discussing their actual floor. The harsh reality is that more than half the draft class picks tend to be failures. It's like batting in baseball. You're considered among the elite if you hit three out of ten. Drafting is the same. The Chicago Bears are hoping to get three good players out of the 2023 draft class. Any more than that would be a bonus.
So perhaps this is a good time to explore what the latest class is capable of in the coming years and what reality might have in store for most of them. These are the floors and ceilings for every pick made by GM Ryan Poles.
Here is the range of expectations for every Chicago Bears draft pick.
1st Round (10th overall) - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
- Floor: Alex Barron
- Ceiling: Tristan Wirfs
Barron was a 1st round pick of the Rams in 2005. He started five seasons for them, helping Steven Jackson become a star at running back. However, he was maligned by constant mental mistakes and technique issues. He only played one season after leaving St. Louis.
Wirfs has quickly become one of the best right tackles in the NFL. He helped the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl in 2020 and has gone on to consecutive Pro Bowls over the past two years. His size, athleticism, and nasty streak make him somebody opponent hate going against.
2nd Round (53rd overall) - Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida
- Floor: Raekwon Davis
- Ceiling: Chris Jones
Davis came out of Alabama with outstanding size, length, and power. He also flashed huge potential as an interior pass rusher. Teams weren't sure he had the consistent burst, though. Their concerns proved valid. Davis has become a solid nose tackle for the Dolphins but hasn't ascended beyond that.
Everybody knows Jones. He is the dominant presence on defense for Kansas City. His spot in the Hall of Fame is likely secure at this point. The guy is gigantic, explosive, long, and a nightmare to block. He wasn't a complete pass rusher in college, but he learned fast in the NFL. Dexter had similar flashes.
2nd Round (56th overall) - Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami
- Floor: Josh Jackson
- Ceiling: Kyle Fuller
When Green Bay drafted him in the 2nd round, Jackson came in with lots of hype. His mix of size and athleticism was hard to deny. After a disappointing rookie year as a starter, he was relegated to a backup role for two years and ended up becoming a forgettable journeyman.
Watch the college tape of Fuller and Stevenson side by side. The similarities are there. Similar size. Similar athleticism and especially similar toughness. Fuller made his name as an all-around player who could tackle or play coverage. A perfect zone corner. That is what Stevenson can become.
3rd Round (64th overall) - Zacch Pickens, DT, South Carolina
- Floor: Robert Nkemdiche
- Ceiling: Javon Hargrave
Everybody was hyped up on Nkemdiche because of his flashes on tape and his strong testing. Nobody disputed he had the athletic upside to be a dangerous interior pass rusher. He just never showed it on tape. He never would, either. The former 1st round pick was a major disappointment, failing to realize any of that potential.
Hargrave was in a similar vein. He had that quickness and explosion for an interior pass rusher but none of the polish. It took him a few years and a scheme change, but he figured it out. Now he's one of the most dangerous QB hunters in the league, despite his meh ability to stop the run.
4th Round (115th overall) - Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
- Floor: Justice Hill
- Ceiling: Kareem Hunt
Hill was a highly productive player at Oklahoma State. Hopes were high that he'd become a mainstay of Baltimore's rushing attack. It never panned out that way. However, his determination and unselfish approach eventually led him to become a quality special teams player.
People questioned his speed coming out of Toledo, but it didn't take Hunt long to show how little that mattered. His strong, determined running style and pass-catching ability made him an instant star in Kansas City. He's remained productive ever since. The key with Johnson is he has far fewer personality concerns.
4th Round (133rd overall) - Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati
- Floor: Yamon Figurs
- Ceiling: John Brown
Figurs came to Baltimore with blazing speed and vertical ability. They hoped he could open up their passing game. It never panned out. He barely played on offense and was relegated to kick and punt return duties. After four seasons, he was out of the league.
A no-name from Pittsburgh State, Brown wowed people with his speed at the combine. He translated that to the NFL, becoming a perfect fit with quarterback Carson Palmer in Arizona's vertical offense. Brown had two 1,000-yard seasons before injuries derailed his career.
5th Round (148th overall) - Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
- Floor: Arthur Brown
- Ceiling: Lance Briggs
There was lots of hype around Brown going into the 2013 draft. People loved his physicality, instincts, and range. However, maturity concerns and a lack of discipline on the field kept him from ever earning a starting job in Baltimore. A massive disappointment for somebody once considered a 1st rounder.
People will flip out hearing the Briggs comparison. Note that Sewell has almost identical measurables and combine numbers to the eventual Chicago Bears legend. The 5th round pick was viewed as 1st round material not too long ago. He's healthy now and already making plays in practice. This ceiling is not crazy.
5th Round (165th overall) - Terell Smith, CB, Minnesota
- Floor: Davontae Harris
- Ceiling: Marlon Humphrey
Harris had plenty of athletic potential as a 5th round pick from Illinois State in 2018. He never managed to polish it enough to make NFL teams keep him around. He played for six different organizations in his career and failed to register a single interception.
When it comes to measurables and playing style, Smith and Humphrey share much in common. They're good athletes with good size, play a physical game, and are at their best in zone coverage where they can use their instincts. Humphrey learned how to smother receivers one-on-one. Smith has the tools to do the same.
7th Round (218th overall) - Travis Bell, DT, Kennesaw State
- Floor: Keith Jackson
- Ceiling: Grady Jarrett
Jackson tested well coming out of Arkansas in 2007. That is why he went in the 7th round despite being undersized. It never panned out as the kid failed to play a single snap. Jarrett was also undersized at Clemson and fell to the 5th round. The difference is he utilized his quickness, explosion, and high motor to become an excellent interior pass rusher in Atlanta. His measurables are almost identical to Bell's.
7th Round (258th overall) - Kendall Williamson, S, Stanford
- Floor: C.J. Gaddis
- Ceiling: Nate Allen
Gaddis had size and athleticism, along with some promising moments on tape at Clemson. It proved to be a "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" situation. He never played a regular season snap in his career. Allen was never a star during his career, but he was an unsung role player on some good defenses. He could do a little bit of everything in coverage and against the run. Williamson feels like such a type.
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