Everybody agrees the list of players who could be available at the 9th overall pick on April 25th is strong. That is why the Chicago Bears will be compelled to stay put, hoping to land a blue-chip player for their growing core of talent. However, many people can't ignore the elephant in the room. The Bears only have four picks left in the draft. Trades for Montez Sweat, Keenan Allen, and Ryan Bates have drained their coffers. Many find it hard to believe GM Ryan Poles will be willing to accept that status quo.
Hence why the buzz remains persistent that Chicago will look for opportunities to move down from #9. Former scouting director Greg Gabriel agrees this possibility is strong. He explained on Windy City Gridiron that the Bears are likely making calls to teams that may have interest in moving up, gauging who has the strongest probability of working out a deal. However, there is one added issue. Gabriel believes the Bears will be careful not to move down too far due to fears of seeing a steep talent drop-off.
That could limit what they get in return.
When preparing for a trade, the club has to determine how far back they are willing to go. They do that by finding out where the drop off in value is on their Board. That could be 12 players, it could be 15 or 16. It will vary but it's important not to trade down lower than where that drop off point is.
The Bears don't have a second-round pick in this Draft, and I'm sure they would love to get one, but I can't see them trading down that far in the first round in order to obtain a second-round pick. That would mean they would have to move back about eight or nine slots, meaning they would be picking around 17 or 18. It's my opinion that by doing that, they are going back too far and losing out on a premier player. The more likely scenario is moving back three of four slots and getting a third-round pick in return.
This creates a small window for the Chicago Bears.
If Gabriel is correct, there are likely three teams in play for the #9 pick that Poles would be willing to deal with. They are Denver (#12), Las Vegas (#13), and New Orleans (#14). All three will have some incentive to move up in the right situation. The Broncos need a quarterback and must get ahead of Minnesota at #11, presuming they stay put. Chicago would be the perfect spot. The same is true for Las Vegas, although they could also jump up for an offensive tackle or cornerback. As for New Orleans, their offensive tackle situation is looking dangerous. They will have to jump in front of the Jets at #10 if they want to get one of the top guys.
Everything will come down to what offers the Chicago Bears get. If Poles feels none of them are strong enough, he will stay put and take the best player on his board. Still, there is always the possibility an unexpected team comes forward with a strong enough package to compel the Bears to move down past the drop-off point. Maybe someone like Buffalo, who needs wide receiver help, gets aggressive. That is why the draft is so compelling. Its unpredictability can lead to fireworks.
