Caleb Williams has largely similar numbers through the first seven games this season compared to his rookie year in 2024. There are some marked differences, though. His sack percentage is way down, and he has far fewer bouts where he looks like a deer in headlights. It is evident he has more command of the huddle and line of scrimmage. However, consistency and efficiency are still not yet there. The completion percentage remains too low (61.9%), and pre-snap penalties continue to be a persistent issue.
Some have started wondering if Williams will ever figure out how to play the position like a true professional. He still too often feels like he's trying to recreate his magic from the USC days, not understanding it doesn't work that way in the NFL. One expert isn't worried. Benjamin Solak of ESPN has watched Williams carefully all season. He sees far more progress than people realize. In fact, he's starting to see several similarities in his development to another prominent quarterback.
You may have heard of him.
It might seem like Williams is destined for the same path as Kyler Murray or Trevor Lawrence -- a first-round pick talented enough to get a big second contract but not consistent enough to ever win with that cap weight hanging around his neck. We might eventually end up there. But even Murray and Lawrence were not and are not as physically talented as this. As such, I have an alternative career arc comp to make: Josh Allen.
Through Allen's first two pro seasons, he had an off-target rate of 23.5%. Williams is at 21.3%. Like Williams, Allen was clearly physically capable of making all the requisite throws. But he was excitable in the pocket, his mechanics vacillated from throw to throw, and his shot selection was high difficulty. The light bulb went on for Allen in Year 3 under Brian Daboll -- and after plenty of private offseason work on his mechanics.
Caleb Williams deserves the same grace period as Josh Allen got.
People forget the Buffalo Bills star was a rollercoaster through his first two seasons. He completed just 56.3% of his passes with 30 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. The reason he wasn't under more scrutiny was his ability to score on the ground (17 touchdowns). Obviously, Caleb Williams isn't 6'5 and 240 lbs. Allen finally got going in his third year, which was also his third season in the same offense. People cannot keep glossing over the fact that this is Williams' first year in a new system under Ben Johnson.
Learning these things takes time.
Care to know the last time a Bears quarterback had the same head coach and same offensive coordinator for three seasons in a row? That was Rex Grossman from 2004 to 2007, when he had Lovie Smith as his head coach and Ron Turner as his offensive coordinator. In his third year, he took the Bears to the Super Bowl. There is more than enough evidence in league history to justify giving Williams more time.
