Here Are The Actual Odds Matt Nagy Keeps The Bears Job

Chicago Bears fans have just about had their fill of Matt Nagy as head coach. It was easy to like him for a while. He was energetic, positive, and made the team fun to watch in 2018. Most importantly he was winning. However, the masses have begun turning against him. Since the start of 2019, Nagy is now 13-14. Worst of all his offense, one of the primary reasons he was brought in, continues to go in the wrong direction. Things started out fine. The Bears were 21st in total offense but 9th in points scored in 2018. However, once the takeaways on defense started to dry up the next season? That is when Nagy's system started to get exposed. It finished 29th overall in 2019 and currently ranks 31st with five games left to play in 2020. This despite overhauling most of his offensive staff this offseason and changing quarterbacks from Mitch Trubisky to Nick Foles.

Everything he's tried isn't working.

That is never a good sign for a head coach. Men in that position are supposed to be problem-solvers. They're paid to identify why a team isn't performing well and make the necessary adjustments to get it back on track. Nagy seems to have run out of solutions. When something like that happens, a team must ask what further use he is to them? This is why speculation is rampant that barring a miracle, he will be fired following the conclusion of this season. Yet to say it's too late to save himself would be incorrect. Sheil Kapadia of The Athletic says there is still a chance for Nagy to rally the troops. He even has a specific percentage in mind.

"We often trick ourselves into thinking that the best and most deserving teams always make it, but sometimes it doesn’t play out that way. Chicago has just one game left against a team that would make the postseason if the playoffs started today. Don’t get me wrong. The most likely scenario is that the Bears continue to fall apart. They have lost five in a row and appear to have no answers on offense. But there’s a chance — shall we say a 16.5 percent chance? — that they rally down the stretch. The next five weeks could go a long way in determining Nagy’s future."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OA61CrQovls&t=1s&ab_channel=UndisputedToday

Matt Nagy has zero excuses left in front of him

This isn't exactly a gauntlet being thrown down over the final month of the season. Chicago will play just one team with a winning record in the final five games. That being Green Bay in the season finale. The others will be Detroit, who they beat on opening day, Minnesota who they should've beaten three weeks ago, Jacksonville who is terrible, and Houston who has been inconsistent all season. By rights, this is a schedule a good team could sweep. Of course, it's become clear the Bears aren't a good team. That is why Nagy is under a metric ton of pressure. At 5-6, his margin for error is almost non-existent. To have a reasonable shot at the playoffs, they would have to run the table at 5-0. They need to go 4-1 just to be ensured a winning record at 9-7. Anything less than that?

Don't forget the Bears started 5-1.

If they go from that to 8-8 or even worse? It's difficult to understand how Matt Nagy could convince Bears ownership he deserves to stay after overseeing one of the worst collapses in recent franchise history. Lovie Smith went from 7-1 to 10-6 and still got canned. His defenses were excellent and he won playoff games and went to a Super Bowl. Nagy has no such credibility to lean on. So 16.5% sounds about right.