Researching The Odds Facing N'Keal Harry To Succeed In Chicago

N'Keal Harry became the newest addition to the Chicago Bears wide receiver room after they traded a 7th round pick in 2024 to the New England Patriots for him. It ends a long, frustrating saga for the former 1st round pick. Many had high expectations of him after a stellar career at Arizona State. Players with his size, body control, hands, and competitiveness usually succeed in the NFL. Yet, for whatever reason, it didn't happen. Most have already labeled him a bust. That isn't surprising. Failing to crack 600 receiving yards across three seasons will do that. Still, he's only 24 years old and might do well with a fresh start elsewhere. It was a worthwhile gamble. The more interesting question is this. What are the odds that Harry may actually find success in his new home? To get an idea, I looked over every trade since 1994 involving a former 1st round receiver. The key criteria are they had to have been a disappointment with their first team. No having two good years and then falling off a cliff. One decent year is permitted, provided the rest was ugly.

Here is the list of names that fit the bill.

• Mark Ingram
• Eddie Kennison
• Marcus Nash
• Troy Edwards
• Rashaun Woods
• Mike Williams
• Troy Williamson
• Ted Ginn Jr.
• Jonathan Baldwin and A.J. Jenkins
• Phillip Dorsett
• Tavon Austin
• Corey Coleman

That isn't the most inspiring list. Ten of the 13 names mentioned failed to make any notable mark with the team that traded for them. Only Ingram, Kennison, and Ginn Jr. managed to find some success. Kennison was good as a rookie, then regressed his next two years. The Saints traded for him and got over 800 yards out of him in 1999.

N'Keal Harry would be a significant outlier in this situation.

First round receivers usually get traded for two reasons. Either they're due a huge contract their first team didn't want to pay, or they proved they're not NFL material. To be fair, the Patriots don't have the strongest track record for developing receivers. Bill Belichick selected five such players in his long career between 2000 and 2021. Only one of them, Deion Branch, became a good player. Then again, it may just mean Belichick isn't great at scouting the position. Don't forget he passed on Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mecole Hardman, and D.K. Metcalf when taking Harry. The Bears aren't sure what they have yet. They know the young receiver brings size and good hands to the table. N'Keal Harry is also one of the best run-blockers at his position in the league. Such players have value. Yet he will be judged on whether he can become a viable pass-catcher. The good news is he now has a quarterback in Justin Fields that isn't afraid to give his guys a chance. Harry waited two years for this opportunity. It might be his last.