With the big waves of free agency past, the focus of Chicago Bears nation has shifted to the main event. The NFL draft is just over a month away. It is without question the single-most important three days this team has had in at least a decade. GM Ryan Pace has done a lot of work to overhaul the entire roster during his first two years in charge. Unfortunately he doesn't have much to show for it.
The Bears are just 9-23 to start his tenure in Chicago. Nobody bothers to point out that the same was true for his counterpart Ted Thompson up in Green Bay. Regardless the overall point doesn't change. Every regime, with some exceptions, are expected to start showing results by their third season. That time is at hand for Pace.
This team must start winning more football games. That makes this upcoming draft beyond critical. He can't afford to miss on too many picks. None more so than the first one, the #3 overall. Conventional wisdom says it should be easy for him to find a really good football player at that spot. Then again, they could always trade it for more picks.
At least that's the typical reason. It turns out there might be another, scarier one.
It makes no sense that the Bears would want to get rid of what is the highest selection the franchise has held since 1972. Especially when its produced a number of all-time great players. Hall of Famers at several different positions. This is true. There is no arguing that point. So why then? In truth it comes down to a degree of superstition.
The #3 pick in the NFL draft is unlucky.
To date a total of 52 players have been selected at that spot in the Super Bowl era. As of today 29 of those men reached at least one Pro Bowl. Not a bad hit rate right? Here's where it gets discouraging. Out of those 52 men, just one managed to win a championship as the starter for the team who drafted him. That was Carl Banks who went third overall to the New York Giants in 1986. He is the only man to accomplish that feat. A 1/52 chance.
For a comparison? The #4 pick, a slot lower than where the Bears currently sit, has seven players who have pulled that off.
Not only that, but several of the other great #3 picks were haunted by some incredible heartbreak. Anthony Munoz, an 11-time Pro Bowler, helped the Bengals reach two Super Bowls in 1981 and 1988. Only to watch Joe Montana steal them both away.
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Joe Thomas, the greatest left tackle of his generation has been to the playoffs once in his career. All-time running back Barry Sanders won a single playoff game. Larry Fitzgerald, the greatest playoff performer at his position ever, keeps coming up painfully short. Then of course there's Matt Ryan. The #3 pick of 2008 just fell victim to the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.
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Superstition may not have a place in the logical world, but often professional football is anything but logical. It's why so many people love it. So if one were to tell the Bears that just one third overall pick in over 50 years has won a Super Bowl, how could they not feel a little spooked by that? They believed in the Sports Illustrated cover curse. They believe in the Madden curse. This is no different.
Sure, the primary reasons for trading away the pick are simple enough. The Chicago Bears have a lot of roster holes to fill. Moving down for more picks in a time-honored way to help solve this problem. At the same time, it's also not a bad plan to get the team out from under the cloud of a draft selection that is looking more and more hexed by the year.
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