Depression set in again for Chicago Bears fans as the inevitable news came down that Patrick Mahomes received his long-awaited contract extension. It's expected to be the biggest in NFL history, locking him together with the Chiefs until 2031. Many can't help but feel that should've been the Bears. Instead, they're stuck with Mitch Trubisky, who stands maybe one training camp away from transitioning to a career as a backup.
Still, there is a sliver of hope remaining.
Despite his rough 2019, there were still glimpses last season that he can take over games. The talent has always been there. It's a matter of whether he can ever master the speed of the game from a processing standpoint. Can he find the open guys and more importantly hit them with consistency? Most don't believe it's possible. Some still believe he can figure it out. He wouldn't be the first QB to bloom later than normal.
Here's the question though. Even if Trubisky wins the competition against Nick Foles, that is only the first hurdle. He still has to play the upcoming season with full knowledge that he could be a free agent next March. So how well would he have to perform in order to change the Bears' minds about investing in him long-term?
Mitch Trubisky has to think of 2018 as the baseline
Ask Bears fans and most will probably say they'd be content with what Trubisky did in 2018. He threw for just over 3,200 yards with 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions that season. Decent but worthy of big money? Chicago will first think about using the franchise tag to secure him next offseason. This year that would've cost just over $26 million. With the new CBA expected to raise the salary cap soon, that could rise to $30 million in short order.
Is that stat line worth that much money? No, it is not. Yet the Bears might at least be willing to absorb the hit for one year. A sort of holding pattern to see if Trubisky can improve on his rebound in 2021. Long-term? That is a different animal.
Trubisky would have to do one of two things. He'd either have to post record-setting numbers. In this case we'll say 4,000 yards and 30 TDs, two bars a Bears QB has never reached in a single season. Or he'd have to lead them on a deep playoff run.
Does anybody believe he can pull off either? Not right now. Most don't even expect him to survive the battle with Foles. Him starting a full season and having a breakout year? That's the sort of Hollywood nonsense this franchise has never encountered at that position.
The only thing to do is sit back, watch, and wait.
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