The Chicago Bears have one game left. Once it has been decided, GM Ryan Poles will easily face the most critical decision of his tenure. He finds himself in a unique position. On the one hand, he has a young quarterback in Justin Fields, who overcame a rough start to play some of his best football down the stretch. Chicago has gone 7-5 in their last 12 games, with five straight wins at home. On the other hand, he holds the #1 overall pick in a draft many consider quite strong at the quarterback position.
Thus Poles faces a difficult decision: stick with Fields or trade him and draft a replacement. In these cases, it is good to look at NFL history to see if any examples mirror the Bears' situation. A young quarterback hasn't had a full breakthrough but appears to be improving while the team secures a high draft choice. What happened to those who opted to pick somebody new, and what happened to those who stayed the course? Here is a list of examples from both sides. Take from them what you will.
The Chicago Bears can look to these examples for guidance.
Took the QB:
Eagles drafted Carson Wentz in 2016
Philadelphia had gone 7-9 in 2015. Quarterback Sam Bradford, who was 28 at the time, had a decent year with 3,725 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Rather than maintain the status quo, the Eagles traded up in the 2016 draft to grab Wentz at #2 overall. Bradford was traded to Minnesota. Wentz had an outstanding in 2017, helping Philly to a 13-2 record before tearing his ACL. That set the team up for their run to a Super Bowl title. Sadly, his career went into decline after that and he was never the same. Bradford had a solid year in Minnesota but survived only two more seasons after that.
Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in 2004
Drew Brees had an uneven first three years with San Diego. There were flashes of brilliance, but inconsistency plagued him. So, they chose to grab Rivers in the draft. Brees responded with a breakout year in 2004, but a rotator cuff injury ended his season in 2005. Rivers stepped in and went on to become a future Hall of Famer. Brees signed with the Saints in 2006 and carved his own path to Canton as well. He won the Super Bowl in 2009. Rivers failed to reach one.
Buccaneers drafted Vinny Testaverde in 1987
Tampa Bay was a terrible team in the 1980s, but they seemed to have a knack for finding good quarterbacks. After running off Doug Williams earlier in the decade, they acquired a kid named Steve Young from the USFL. While he was up and down in 1986, the flashes were there. However, ownership loved Testaverde from powerhouse Miami. Young was traded to San Francisco, and Testaverde went #1. Vinny had a rough six seasons in Tampa before embarking on a journeyman career where he made a couple of Pro Bowls. Young succeeded Joe Montana, won a Super Bowl, and made the Hall of Fame. The good news is the Chicago Bears aren't as bad as those Bucs teams were.
Jets drafted Ken O'Brien in 1983
Richard Todd had the dubious task of replacing Joe Namath in New York. His first few seasons were uninspired. Yet by the early 1980s, he started to look like a solid quarterback. He threw 25 TDs in 1981 and won two playoff games in 1982. Still, that wasn't enough to save the 29-year-old. The Jets took O'Brien 24th overall that following off-season. Todd regressed the next year and was released in 1984. O'Brien made two Pro Bowls and reached the playoffs three times. Todd had two forgettable years in New Orleans before retiring.
Passed on the QB:
Giants kept Daniel Jones in 2020
Jones had a terrific rookie season with New York in 2018 but regressed considerably the next year. That gave the Giants the #4 overall pick. While Joe Burrow was out of reach, they'd have a shot at Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. Unwilling to abandon Jones so early, they opted to draft offensive tackle Andrew Thomas instead. Thomas has become a solid player for the Giants. Sadly, Jones has not. He's never developed into the passer they hoped for and is likely on his way to getting replaced since they hold the #5 pick in the upcoming draft. Tagovailoa and Herbert have enjoyed productive passing careers.
Jaguars kept Blake Bortles in 2017
Bortles was a tremendous physical talent, but his tenure in Jacksonville had been a rollercoaster. He threw 35 touchdowns in 2015 but only 23 in 2016. The team wasn't winning a lot of games. They held the #4 pick in the 2017 draft. Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were both available. Jacksonville passed, opting for LSU star running back Leonard Fournette instead. Bortles had an okay season, leading the Jaguars to a stunning AFC championship run. He fell back to earth a year later and has been a backup ever since. Watson was terrific right out of the gate in Houston. Mahomes? Well, you know.
Lions kept Joey Harrington in 2005
Ironically, Harrington went through a lot of the same miseries Fields did with the Chicago Bears. Constant coaching change. A poor supporting cast. Still, he had his best season (3,000 yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs) in 2004. Maybe one more strong off-season could get him over the hump. The Lions never expected Aaron Rodgers to be available at the 10th pick in the following draft. Rather than pouncing on the opportunity, they opted for wide receiver Mike Williams instead. You can guess what happened next. Williams was a bust in Detroit, not even making it three seasons. Rodgers went to Green Bay and became an all-time great.
Bengals kept Jeff Blake in 1995
Blake showed promise in 1994, having signed with Cincinnati as a free agent. It didn't prevent them from landing the #1 overall pick via trade. They had Steve McNair and Kerry Collins as the primary options. Instead, they opted for running back Ki-jana Carter. The pick itself was a disaster. Knee problems haunted Carter's career. That said, Blake ended up having two solid seasons, including a Pro Bowl in the subsequent 1995 run. Unfortunately, McNair went on to become an MVP. Both he and Collins reached a Super Bowl in their careers.
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