How Basic Economics Can Predict The First Chicago Bears Draft Pick

What are the Chicago Bears going to do with the third overall pick in the NFL draft? This will be the all-consuming question fans will be wrestling for the next month and a half. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know how important this stretch of the offseason is. After going 9-23 over the past two years, the current regime knows the time is approaching where they have to start showing progress. That means a strong draft is imperative, and the first round pick is always the most important. Part of the reason the team fell apart over the past few years was because they couldn't get that pick right. Chris Williams? Gabe Carimi? Shea McClellin? Those three busts only served to help the downward spiral accelerate. It's what bad drafting does. They can't afford to screw up at #3. So which direction will they go with it? Everybody has an opinion on that subject. Most of them involve a pure football perspective. What if, on the other hand one were to take a more business-oriented approach to it. Specifically in regards to economics. Perhaps that will shed some light on where the team is likely to focus. Everybody who managed to stay awake in business class during high school at least has a passing knowledge of "supply and demand." The basic definition is this:  the amount of a commodity, product, or service available and the desire of buyers for it, considered as factors regulating its price. In other words if supply is high and demand is low, the price of something goes down. If demand is high and supply is low, the price goes up. What does this have to do with the Bears? It's like this. One must examine the Bears primary needs and what they are most likely to take in the first round. Presuming they don't trade down, which is unlikely anyway, it's down to them either taking a top defensive prospect or a quarterback. The general consensus is there is no wide receiver, tight end or offensive tackle worth a top five pick in this class and the team doesn't need a running back. Thus it's time to insert that lesson of supply and demand. Below is a table. On it are listed every position the Bears are likely to consider at #3 overall and how many prospects make it into the top 100 rankings at those positions. Why the top 100? Generally it's believed NFL starters occupy that range, which encompasses the first three rounds of the draft. There are exceptions but it still offers a fair barometer. Keep in mind these numbers are based off of researching big boards of multiple draft experts from ESPN, CBS Sports, NFL.com and B/R.

Position	Top 100 prospects
QB	5
DL/EDGE	29
CB	16
S	9

So what does the table reflect? Quite simple. The supply of top defensive prospects is each higher than the quarterbacks. From the Bears' perspective, one can just say the demand for each is equal. Therefor the economic application says if they want to get a quality quarterback out of this draft, they have to pay top dollar for one because the supply is lowest. Dollars in this sense are draft picks, i.e. a first round draft pick. The table clearly indicates they can fill their defensive needs with starting talent later on. Many experts have continued to insist that the Bears are very much still in the market to draft a quarterback high. Matt Miller of Bleacher Report reiterated that again it his recent scouting notebook.

"Mike Glennon's signing doesn't change anything. The Bears could still draft a quarterback in the first two rounds."

This was reinforced when the team brought their entire top brass, including the quarterbacks coach to the Clemson pro day to observe Deshaun Watson.

Ryan Pace has not drafted a quarterback yet in his tenure as GM of the Bears. He has the highest pick a man in his position has held since 1972 for this franchise. The last time somebody was that close, Jerry Angelo passed on Aaron Rodgers for Cedric Benson (#4 overall in 2005). There aren't many names in this 2017 class who look like they can be stars. Thus the economic imperative is clear. If Pace wants that quarterback he can build a team around, he'll have to pay the high price to get him. Odds are strong that Chicago will have their pick of all the names on the board at #3. One can't ask for a better chance than this.