Free agency for all intents and purposes is over. The Chicago Bears may still make a couple moves in the next month or so. That's common procedure, but the big ones are complete. Almost all primary focus has shifted to the upcoming NFL draft. Easily the most important that this regime has faced yet and maybe the most important in the past decade.
After finishing 3-13, there is no question the pressure is higher than ever to get this ship pointed in the right direction. That is what GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox promised. Admittedly they accepted a difficult job, inheriting the oldest team in the NFL two years ago. Since then they've rapidly turned over the roster, making it one of the youngest.
Unfortunately such actions can create growing pains. This new Bears team is trying to forge its own identity. The belief is this next draft will provide clarity on what that will be. It's just a matter of figuring out who they may have targeted for the #3 pick. One way people can narrow that down? By looking closer at how the team operated in free agency.
One thing about Pace is he's a man who operates according to a plan. He won't go beyond a certain dollar amount and has backups for his backups. What some people may not know is he often uses free agency to funnel his roster towards being able to draft a specific position. What does that mean? Here is a comprehensive breakdown of all the notable free agent moves the Bears have made over the past two years. Then it each list will conclude with who the team took in the first round of the subsequent draft.
2015 SIGNED:
- Pernell McPhee (OLB)
- Antrel Rolle (S)
- Eddie Royal (WR)
- Vladimir Ducasse (OG)
- Thomas Gafford (LS)
- Jarvis Jenkins (DE)
- Mason Foster (ILB)
- Alan Ball (CB)
- Jacquizz Rodgers (RB)
- Sam Acho (OLB)
- Will Montgomery (C)
- Bear Pascoe (TE)
- Tracy Porter (CB)
DRAFTED: Kevin White (WR, West Virginia)
2016 SIGNED:
- De’Vante Bausby (CB)
- Cornelius Edison (C)
- Paul Lasike (FB)
- Danny Trevathan (ILB)
- Bobby Massie (OT)
- Jerrell Freeman (ILB)
- Akiem Hicks (DE)
- Aaron Brewer (LS)
- Ted Larsen (OG)
- Brian Hoyer (QB)
- Connor Shaw (QB)
DRAFTED: Leonard Floyd (OLB, Georgia)
What exactly can be extrapolated from this? It’s important not to note the number of players signed but the positions they’re signed at. Then putting that up against what were considered the biggest needs of those years. In 2015 it was unquestionably wide receiver thanks to the Bears trading Brandon Marshall to the Jets. Though they signed Eddie Royal, he was neither the same type nor talented receiver as Marshall. By not acquiring another body at the position, Pace tipped his cap about the likelihood of drafting one early. A quick counter-punch to the loss. A year later in 2016, primary concerns centered on the pass rush. Most notably the questionable health status of linebacker Pernell McPhee. Look at the list of free agents. Not a single outside linebacker signed. Is it really any surprise that the team traded up to secure Floyd in the first round? He was exactly what they wanted and needed. Odds are by the end of free agency they were already targeting him. So applying this same examination, what does it say about the 2017 likelihood?2017 SIGNED:
- Rueben Randle (WR)
- Mike Glennon (QB)
- Quintin Demps (FS)
- Markus Wheaton (WR)
- Kendall Wright (WR)
- Dion Sims (TE)
- Prince Amukamara (CB)
- Marcus Cooper (CB)
- John Jenkins (NT)
"1. Edge rusher The Bears have five outside linebackers on their roster: Leonard Floyd, Pernell McPhee, Willie Young, Lamarr Houston and Roy Robertson-Harris. So it’s a thin position. 2. Quarterback The Bears think Glennon is much more than a backup, but they still protected themselves by structuring his contract the way they did. Glennon signed a three-year, $45 million deal, but his total guarantee is $18.5 million — $16 million of which will come this season. His contract also includes incentives for victories and individual performance. In other words, for as much as the Bears rave about Glennon, they still want him to earn their long-term commitment."Indeed. The Bears only signed one quarterback in free agency with Glennon. They only have two on the roster with him and Connor Shaw. It's highly unlikely Pace will keep things that way. To say nothing of the three-year contract Glennon signed. Not a ton of long-term security in place. Then there is the edge rusher position, slammed by injuries last year. John Fox is a defensive guy. No doubt he'd prefer more stability there as well. Thus we arrive at reality. Based on their free agency maneuvers, the Bears are either going to take an edge rusher at #3 overall, or a quarterback. Which will it be? That's difficult to answer because their final decision could be dictated by who is available. Most expect the Cleveland Browns to take Texas A&M star Myles Garrett at #1. If that happens, everything falls on what the San Francisco 49ers do at #2. Most expect, as with Chicago, it will either be a quarterback or top defensive lineman. [video width="1280" height="720" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Draft-Experts-Who-Will-the-49ers-Pick-at-No.-2.mp4"][/video] If they go with the QB, odds increase the Bears get the edge rusher. If they go edge rusher, then Pace will have his choice of every quarterback in the class. Assuming people would like a straighter answer than that, there is one last thing to consider. According to most draft experts there are 15-16 pass rushers worthy of going on the first two days (rounds 1-3). Quarterbacks? That number stands at around 5-6. Take from that what you will.
