How Many Good Drafts Ryan Poles Will Need To Make Bears A Contender

The Chicago Bears are in the middle of another rebuild under new GM Ryan Poles. He has made it his mission to build this team through the draft. It's time to stop relying on free agency and aggressive trades. Those may have helped find short-term success, but it is never sustainable. While this philosophy has been proven over many decades, the downside is it can take time before a team becomes good. Patience isn't something the modern NFL fan has. Thus one must ask the question.

How many good drafts will Poles need to make this team a true contender?

We must first clarify what constitutes a "good" draft to answer that. In this instance, after studying the Bears' history, the best description is a draft that delivers at least two long-term starters. We're talking about players that ended up starting at least five years in the NFL. With these parameters, the timeline works out to around five such drafts being required before a team is ready to go after a Lombardi trophy.

1985 Bears

• 1975 draft (Walter Payton and Mike Hartenstine)
• 1979 draft (Dan Hampton and Al Harris)
• 1980 draft (Otis Wilson and Matt Suhey)
• 1981 draft (Keith Van Horne and Mike Singletary)
• 1983 draft (Jimbo Covert, Willie Gault, Mike Richardson, Dave Duerson, Tom Thayer, Richard Dent, and Mark Bortz)

2006 Bears

• 1998 draft (Olin Kreutz and Patrick Mannelly)
• 2000 draft (Brian Urlacher and Mike Brown)
• 2003 draft (Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs)
• 2004 draft (Tommie Harris and Bernard Berrian)
• 2006 draft (Danieal Manning and Devin Hester)

Ryan Poles can accelerate things with more hits.

If a GM finds more than two long-term starters in the same draft, that is a major bonus and moves the rebuild forward faster. We don't yet know how Poles has done since it's still so early. His first draft class has some promise. Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, and Braxton Jones all flashed potential as rookies. If they pan out as hoped, that is a great start for the Bears. It certainly doesn't hurt that Cole Kmet, Jaylon Johnson, Darnell Mooney, Justin Fields, and Teven Jenkins all look like quality additions.

Much of how this unfolds will hinge on the next two drafts. Ryan Poles' 2023 class features a top 10 pick (Darnell Wright) and two 2nd round picks (Gervon Dexter and Tyrique Stevenson). At least one of them should be a hit. Then the Bears go into 2024 with two picks in the 1st round. That is a golden opportunity to add more high-end talent to the roster. If things go as planned, this team could be ready to make a run as early as 2025. Maybe sooner if Fields takes another big step forward.