Caleb Williams started the opener against the Minnesota Vikings so well. He hit his first ten passes and scored a touchdown. After that, things slowly started falling apart. After going 11-of-13 to start the game, he finished 21-of-35. That worked out to 60% of his passes completed, far below Ben Johnson's required bar of 70%. Not stringing completions makes offense harder. However, the numbers can sometimes lie. It is important to look at the tape to see if underlying issues were out of the quarterback's control.
So I went back and looked at what happened. To a degree, there were certain plays in which Williams had no shot. The defense had the right coverage call, or got pressure too quickly. However, of the 14 incompletions Williams threw Monday night, I counted ten that were primarily his fault. Either he didn't see an open man, saw them but didn't pull the trigger, or simply missed them with his throw.
- Sails the ball too high and wide for Moore on a post.
- Has Burden open in the flat. Looks that way. Passes. Misfires outlet to Swift.
- Throws ball behind Zacchaeus on an out.
- Puts it in the dirt at Zacchaeus' feet.
- Throws it too wide over the middle to Kmet.
- Vikings defender read Williams all the way and almost pick-sixed it.
- Has Moore over the middle. Doesn't pull the trigger. Sacks himself.
- Airmails Kmet.
- Airmails Moore, who would've had a touchdown.
- Got to Swift too late and put the ball high.
Caleb Williams' primary issue was accuracy.
There were only two notable plays in which he had a guy open and didn't pull the trigger. The other eight were him missing the open guy with an errant pass. Now it was the first game in a new offense. It was primetime against a really well-coached defense. You allow for some early jitters. The problem is that Caleb Williams didn't start that way. He was playing well. He hit passes. Then he just...stopped. It is something that haunted him last year. He'd go on a stretch where it feels like he can't miss. Then the switch flips, and he's like an old musket where you're lucky to hit the target once in three tries.
It is not unreasonable to believe the Bears will win that game if Williams hits even half of those misses. The popular saying in the NFL is that you can't miss the layups. Mitch Trubisky had that problem, and so did Justin Fields. This is not something Williams can let persist.
