How Ryan Poles' Ego Will Determine If Bears Trade Down From #1

Ryan Poles won't tell anybody his plans for the #1 pick. That is probably because he himself isn't sure yet. He has loads of work to do over the next month. Data must be collected on the 2023 draft class. Decisions are required for a free agency plan. Not until those jobs are done can he make the decision everybody awaits. Will he trade down from the #1 overall pick? Plenty of people think he will. Others aren't sure. To answer this question, one must get into the mind of the man. Since that is impossible, perhaps a better approach is to single out the other men who have traded that pick in recent history.

• 1995 - Bill Polian
• 1997 - Bill Parcells
• 2001 - John Butler
• 2016 - Jon Robinson

After researching if there were any similarities between those four men, a few stood out. For starters, all four had experienced high-level success prior to taking those jobs. Polian built the Buffalo Bills teams that dominated the AFC from 1990 through 1993, reaching four straight Super Bowls. Parcells won two rings as head coach of the New York Giants. Butler was Polian's right-hand man in Buffalo. Robinson was a scout and executive with the New England Patriots during the first half of their dynasty in the 2000s. It isn't unreasonable to think all four men had plenty of self-confidence at those points in time.

Also, don't forget all of those teams were rebuilding.

The Panthers were an expansion team in 1995. The Jets had gone 1-15 before Parcells came around. San Diego was 1-15 in 2000. Tennessee had gone 3-13. Each of those four instances showcased a roster that couldn't win on the big stage. That meant they needed tons of work, more than one pick could solve.

The last factor is the quarterback position.

Each man either had what they felt was an established QB already in place or knew they'd be able to get one after moving down. Polian secured Kerry Collins shortly after the trade in '95. Parcells had Neil O'Donnell as his starter in New York. He'd taken Pittsburgh to the Super Bowl two years prior. Butler drafted Drew Brees in the 2nd round. Robinson had #2 overall pick Marcus Mariota entering his second season.

Ryan Poles falls into the same category.

He came from Kansas City, where they'd won the Super Bowl in 2019, gone back in 2020, and were in the AFC championship in 2021. He'd seen the foundation built first-hand with the Chiefs. That is probably why he carries himself with such confidence. His team just went 3-14, so they, too, are in the rebuilding phase with a depleted roster. Finally, there is the quarterback situation. Justin Fields was the best player on the Bears offense this season. He improved as a passer and ran for the second-most yards by a quarterback in a season. His presence eases the pressure on Poles to select a quarterback with that #1 pick.

When this happens, getting a good enough offer is the only thing preventing a trade. All signs indicate other teams pushing hard for the Chicago Bears' spot. Houston sits at #2. They're going to take a quarterback. Everybody knows it. Somebody won't want to risk the guy they covet landing with the Texans. So Ryan Poles will get strong offers to move out. He merely has to say yes. Nothing is set in stone. Other variables must play out. Still, this situation is a perfect storm for Poles to do what many believe is inevitable.

Keep this in mind. It takes a lot of guts to give up the most valuable pick in an NFL draft. Most GMs don't have the stomach for it. Maybe this one does.