It's one thing to get opinions from analysts and experts that cover the NFL. It is something else when you hear from people inside the league. Thus far, there haven't been many reports on what scouts, coaches, and executives think the Chicago Bears will do with the #1 overall pick. That is starting to change. With every team in attendance for the Senior Bowl down in Mobile, it was a perfect chance for insiders to send out feelers. They wanted to get an idea of what the landscape was really like.
Based on the answers they got back, one thing is clear. The Bears should have a solid market for the #1 pick. What it comes down to is how big that market is. Much of that will be determined by where the top veterans go between now and the end of March. Tom Brady retiring was a lucky break for Chicago. If Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr end up with teams picking far outside the top 10, it should create a potential frenzy heading into the draft. Matt Lombardo of Heavy.com even heard that GM Ryan Poles might have a chance to double down.
That is how crazy things can get.
“There are a lot of variables when it comes moving out of the top spot,” an NFC Personnel Director told Heavy. “Especially thinking about how far you’d be willing to trade back, and how many teams are interested in moving up.”
Some league sources here for the Senior Bowl suggest that the Bears could conceivably trade back twice if Poles can manufacture a smokescreen that Chicago is interested in a quarterback that a team such as the Houston Texans are intent on targeting, moving to pick No. 2 — potentially for multiple first-round picks, and sliding down again to either pick No. 4 (the Indianapolis Colts), or No. 5 (Seattle Seahawks) and still happily select a player they’d have been thrilled to choose No. 1 overall.
The Chicago Bears will operate according to their board.
Everything depends on what Poles thinks of this draft class. If he is convinced he can find a true difference-maker further down the board, then it's a foregone conclusion he will trade the pick. On the other hand, if he becomes enamored with any single player, the urge to move down will slacken. Evaluations aren't complete yet. The scouting combine is still ahead, followed by pro days. Poles has more information to gather before he can make an informed decision. One thing is clear, though. The sharks are already circling.
Jeff Hughes of Da Bears Blog revealed two teams have already floated offers to the Chicago Bears. Others are likely to follow once the veteran market becomes clear. If the top QBs in this class make strong impressions, that will only make things better. Teams will try to downplay the idea of giving up big packages for the top pick. These QBs aren't worth it. Here's the thing: they don't have a choice. Quarterbacks drive the NFL. Either you have one or you don't. Several of the teams this off-season can safely say they don't.
The supply is lower than the demand this year. When that happens, somebody will be desperate enough to get aggressive.
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