It seems like every offseason for some time now the Green Bay Packers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are embroiled in some sort of dispute. That took a major step forward last month. GM Brian Gutekunst heralded the beginning of the doomsday clock for Rodgers when he traded up in the 1st round to select Utah State quarterback Jordan Love. Anybody with common sense could tell this was a clear power play meant to send a message.
Gutekunst is tired of beholding himself to the future Hall of Famer and wants to carve out his own legacy. He insists this move was only about protecting the future of the Packers organization. A lot of people aren't buying that. Insider Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk is one of them. He spoke to David Kaplan of SportsTalk Live about it and made it clear he thinks 2020 could be Rodgers' swan song in Green Bay.
"For a team that was a step away from the Super Bowl, this does nothing to help the Aaron Rodgers Packers get any better. I think that when you combine that with the fact they didn’t draft a single receiver in one of the deepest receiver drafts we’ve ever seen, it sets the stage for awkwardness, acrimony and I think potentially a divorce after the 2020 season."
"I think, right now, if I had to pick one or the other. I’d say after this season they’re gonna end up trading him."
With Aaron Rodgers, it's best to follow the money
Contracts help dictate what is likely to happen here. The Packers have put themselves on a timeline by drafting Love. Typically teams want to do all they can to exploit a young quarterback while still on his cheap rookie contract. See Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for an example. This is because it's difficult to build a roster through free agency or trades once that quarterback reaches his second contract.
The longer the Packers wait on Love, the less time they'll have to take advantage of his rookie deal. If they wait until 2022 for example, that would leave them just two seasons of cheap play before they're forced to decide whether to use his 5th-year option, which gets expensive. Not a lot of time to evaluate whether he is truly "the guy" they're hoping he is. This is likely why Florio expects a breakup with Rodgers to happen after 2020.
It would give Green Bay three years to evaluate Love and likely net a strong return via trade while the Hall of Famer is still not too old. That would be the plan anyway. Odds are the Packers would aim for a post-June 1st deal. One that would clear up $22 million in cap space rather than less than $5 million otherwise.
