Is Chasing The Young Offensive Coach The Bears' Smartest Option? Here's The Data

Despite the Chicago Bears meeting with almost two dozen head coaching candidates during this cycle, fans don't seem interested in any of them besides those who fit specific criteria. They must be young and have glittering, offensive backgrounds. That is why guys like Ben Johnson and Joe Brady seem to have lots of traction. Much of this stems from the leaguewide trend that began around 20 years ago when elevating the quarterback became the primary way to compete for championships.

Not everybody agrees with this view. Great coaches come from a variety of backgrounds, not just offense. John Harbaugh has turned Lamar Jackson into a superstar. Sean McDermott did the same with Josh Allen. Good coaches are good coaches, right? Bears fans don't want to hear it. So, in an effort to see if their thinking was accurate or short-sighted, I decided to do some research.

How often do teams that target young offensive minds actually score a hit?

To answer this, I established specific criteria. To keep the data from growing out of control, I focused only on offensive coordinators who produced a #1 offense at least once before getting a head coaching job. This has happened 11 times since 1980. Ted Marchibroda and Marc Trestman also did it, but both were older and had been head coaches before. Here are the results.

• David Shula - Never won more than seven games
• Bruce Coslet - Peaked at 8-8 twice
• Mike Holmgren - Won a Super Bowl in Green Bay
• Mike Shanahan - Won two Super Bowls in Denver
• Brian Billick - Won a Super Bowl in Baltimore
• Mike Martz - Reach a Super Bowl in St. Louis
• Cam Cameron - Went 1-15 in his only season
• Josh McDaniels - Fired in the middle of his second season
• Adam Gase - Made the playoffs his first year but never went back
• Kyle Shanahan - Has reached two Super Bowls

In total, seven of the 11 coaches made the playoffs at least once, five reached a Super Bowl, and three won one.

The Chicago Bears don't seem just to be chasing a trend.

This approach seems to work often enough to justify sticking to it. If going after a top young offensive mind gives you almost a 1-in-3 chance to reach a Super Bowl, most would take those odds in a heartbeat. Green Bay has capitalized on it for years, starting with Holmgren, then Mike McCarthy and Matt Lafleur. Minnesota has done the same with Dennis Green, Brad Childress, and now Kevin O'Connell. The one time Chicago tried this, they opted for a coordinator who had zero actual control of the offense in Matt Nagy. Everybody knew Andy Reid called the shots in Kansas City.

This time around should be different. Johnson, Brady, Todd Monken, Drew Petzing, and Arthur Smith call their own plays. They are far better prepared for handling the dual job of coaching the team and building an offense around the quarterback. It comes down to who the Chicago Bears believe will be the best leader of the bunch. That is what this methodical search is all about. They know what type of coach they want. The hard part is sifting out the one who can hold a locker room.