Is The Bears Draft Approach Flawed? Here's What the Numbers Say

Athletes vs. football players. This is something that has hovered around the Chicago Bears draft approach for the past three years. GM Ryan Pace has a method of operation he's stuck to since taking over the franchise. In the first round of the draft, he always targets players with athletic upside. Always. Without exception. This has drawn him considerable criticism. A lot of people, fans and experts alike, think he should be trying to go after "football players." Now, what exactly does that mean? It can be a bit complicated, but the simplest explanation is that football players are prospects that were highly productive in college but might not have been the absolute best athletes on the field. They were more about being proven then they were about true upside. What scouts like to call "high floor" guys. Another way to put is "safe" picks. Pace does not embrace such an approach. He's said time and again he doesn't want the Bears to be good. He wants them to be great. To do that he has to take some calculated risks. To him, drafting more for athletic ceiling is a key way to do it. The question is whether that line of thinking might be misguided.

Which Chicago Bears draft approach has done better?

To help determine this, it was important to use recent Bears draft history as a reference point. That meant separating all of their first round picks into two categories. Those that were drafted more for their athletic potential and those that were drafted on proven production. This was done using a mix of scouting combine numbers and scouting reports. After that, it was about determining the quality of career for each player. Pro Football Reference provided that with their "Career Approximate Value" system. What they revealed in the athlete vs. football guy debate was rather surprising.

More athlete than football player

• Leonard Floyd (12)
• Kevin White (1)
• Kyle Long (36)
• Shea McClellin (17)
• Greg Olsen (55)
• David Terrell (11)
• Brian Urlacher (118)

Average score:  35.71 [video width="1280" height="720" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Cutler-to-Olsen.mp4"][/video]

More football player than athlete

• Kyle Fuller (16)
• Gabe Carimi (12)
• Chris Williams (26)
• Cedric Benson (34)
• Tommie Harris (54)
• Rex Grossman (23)
• Michael Haynes (8)
• Marc Colombo (42)

Average score:  26.87 The numbers tell a pretty interesting story. Drafting the more proven football players shows that the Bears tended to secure guys who were a little more reliable and for the most part at least had an okay career but there was only one true home run hitter. Conversely, the athlete angle saw some ugly busts like Terrell, McClellin, and White. On the other hand, they also secured three studs in Urlacher, Olsen, and Long. It's fairly decisive. Drafting athletes obtained a significantly higher average score in terms of career quality than football players. While the bust factor risk may be higher, the reality is football is no different than any other sport. The teams with the best athletes tend to win more games and have more success. The hard part isn't drafting them. It's molding them into what they should be. That requires top quality coaching. Are the Bears equipped for that going forward? Based on opinions across the league, far more so than they were last year. That's why 2018 should be fun to watch.