Chicago Bears fans are going to see the former of the two 1st round picks give up for star pass rusher Khalil Mack utilized tonight by the Oakland Raiders. While nobody in the building or who supports the team regrets the move, they are left wondering what the odds might be of them getting a player close to Mack's caliber with that pick.
Mack had 12.5 sacks in his Bears debut. He's 28-years old and locked up for the next five years. Most expert predictions seem him in the Hall of Fame whenever he decides to hang it up. So the franchise can be reasonably certain they got plenty of value in the deal.
The question is whether the Raiders can outpace that value with these picks. This 24th overall selection they're about to use is the first critical one they can't afford to miss on. Unfortunately, history offers them few guarantees.
Khalil Mack value compared to history of 24th pick is pretty clear
To get an idea of what teams generally secure with the 24th pick, I went back and determined what each one was over the span of a decade from 2006 to 2016. Why was 2016 the end point? This is because the player from that class will have played three seasons by now, the usual barometer for telling whether he'll be a success.
Here is the list as it stands.
- William Jackson
- D.J. Humphries
- Darqueze Dennard
- Bjoern Werner
- David DeCastro
- Cameron Jordan
- Dez Bryant
- Peria Jerry
- Chris Johnson
- Brandon Meriweather
- Johnathan Joseph
As one can see, six of the picks (which are in bold) have gone on to become Pro Bowlers. None of them, however, are likely to end up in the Hall of Fame whenever they retired. Meanwhile, the remaining five have been considerable disappointments. Jerry isn't in the league anymore. Werner was a major bust.
Dennard, Humphries, and Jackson are serviceable.
Also, keep in mind that four of those five misses have occurred in the past five years. So this begs the question. Would you trade Mack, a likely future member of Canton, for a 54.54% chance of getting a good-to-really good player who will make a few of Pro Bowls?
The Raiders already gave their answer, but the Bears were willing to take that gamble. They likely have five great years left of Mack with a possibility for several more good after that. Great pass rushers tend to last a long time in the NFL. The Raiders would have to hit on this 24th pick at least to give the trade some validity.
If they fail? They'd need to score a Hall of Famer with their 1st rounder in 2020 to rescue the situation. Even longer odds at that point.
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