Latest Chicago Bears Win Projections for 2018 Have Improved

Think back to the start of 2018. Where were the Chicago Bears win projections at that time? Optimistic fans typically never went higher than nine games. Pessimistic fans and most of the national media had them around six or seven. The typical explanation was they're a young team with a new head coach and an inexperienced quarterback in the toughest division in the NFL. Throw in the fact this team hasn't posted a record of at least .500 since 2013? Yeah it's easy to understand why people were reluctant to buy in. Suddenly though things have changed. The Bears are 4-3, leading the NFC North and are set to face the 2-6 Buffalo Bills on Sunday, giving them a favorable chance to reach 5-3 at the midway point of the season for the first time in five years. The farther-reaching question though is what does this do for their final record prospects. Cynthia Frelund, a mathematics expert for NFL.com, ran the numbers through a model she created herself. One that features significant amounts of current and historical data.

"My model compares this season's games with 15 previous seasons of situational production metrics that led to wins and losses (between 2003 and 2017). Tracking personnel, matchups, play-calling and results from past seasons establishes historical "profiles." The results from the games that have already been played this season are then collected and analyzed in the same way, with the model revealing similarities between the current iteration of each team and its past versions. Then each remaining game is simulated."

So what did her model have to say about the Bears?

Chicago Bears win projections have improved since start of season

One might not call her model too optimistic when it comes to the Bears. However, the numbers are at least fair. All things considered, they reportedly have a 51.1% chance to make the playoffs with a final win total somewhere around the 8.9 mark. In other words, they should win around eight or nine games. Not too bad. [video width="1920" height="1080" mp4="https://www.sportsmockery.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/1920x1080-Projected-final-win-totals-for-2018-Rams-Chiefs-riding-high-NFL.com000059.170-000104.300.mp4"][/video] That would mark a 3-4 game improvement from last season. A fairly significant jump for a young team with a new head coach. That said, it would mean the Bears go 4-4 or 3-5 down the stretch against their remaining schedule. This presuming they defeat Buffalo as expected this week. Frelund explained her reasoning.

"Mitchell Trubisky has rushed for 47 yards or more in each of his last four games. His threat as a rusher has helped create more favorable passing situations, and Trubisky's passer rating of 113.1 over those four games is an increase of more than 35 points over the previous three weeks (when it was 77.8). Adding increased offensive efficiency to their eighth-ranked scoring defense means making the playoffs is a likely scenario."

Many of the doubts likely center around the fact that Chicago hasn't beaten many teams of note yet. Their three losses with to Green Bay, Miami, and New England. Teams that had winning records when the Bears played them. There is a ton of proving for them to still do. Until that happens, they likely won't make believers out of many people.