Finding the next Chicago Bears quarterback will be the most important decision of this off-season and probably the next five years for this organization. A ton of pressure is on GM Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus to get this decision right. Both have insisted it will be a collaborative effort to find the right guy for this team and the city. That means they will have to communicate about what each man is looking for in a quarterback, specifically what they feel is the most vital to success.
During his opening presser at the scouting combine, Eberflus had the chance to talk about his personal preferences for the position. He discussed the usual things: accuracy, decision-making, arm strength, and mobility—the classics. However, he got specific when pressed on the subject a little more. In his mind, the best quarterbacks can often do a few key things better than everybody else.
How are they on 3rd down? Can they conduct an effective two-minute drill? Are they at their best in the 4th quarter? Those are things that separate the good ones from everybody else.
Matt Eberflus didn't flatter Justin Fields with those remarks.
In measuring each of those metrics, the Bears quarterback comes up small. He has thrown 16 touchdowns and 17 interceptions on 3rd down in his career. He has a 44.8 passer rating when trailing with two minutes to go in a game and a 61.3 passer rating in the 4th quarter. None of those are good looks for him. So what about the top draft quarterbacks? Stats on those metrics are difficult to find, but here are some interesting ones.
Percent of 3rd down pass attempts that resulted in a 1st down
- 48.21% - Jayden Daniels
- 48.10% - J.J. McCarthy
- 43.82% - Bo Nix
- 42.31% - Caleb Williams
- 39.29% - Drake Maye
- 37.93% - Michael Penix
4th quarter time of possession share:
- Michigan - 52.66%
- LSU - 49.21%
- Washington - 49.16%
- Oregon - 47.41%
- North Carolina - 46.18%
- USC - 42.61%
Offensive drive efficiency rating:
- Oregon - +0.96
- Michigan - +0.50
- LSU - +0.45
- USC - +0.23
- Washington - +0.21
- North Carolina - +0.09
Based on these metrics, it looks like the two most efficient quarterbacks in this class regarding Matt Eberflus' preferences are Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. Daniels won the Heisman trophy in 2023. McCarthy won the national championship. This does not guarantee they are future superstars, but it is at least notable. The fact both of them are far above the others in 3rd down passing can't be ignored.
It must be noted Williams and Maye didn't have a lot of help this past season, which might explain their less inspiring numbers. Either way, this is something to keep in mind as the Bears enter the vital stages of these evaluations.
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